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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China April economic data at multi-year lows
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) May 13, 2015


China bank lending slowed in April: central bank
Shanghai (AFP) May 13, 2015 - China's bank lending slowed in April from the previous month, the central bank said Wednesday, reflecting slowing growth in the world's second-largest economy.

Domestic banks extended new loans of 707.9 billion yuan ($115.9 billion), the People's Bank of China (PBoC) said in a statement, down from 1.18 trillion yuan in March.

Total social financing -- a broader measure of credit in the economy -- totalled 1.05 trillion yuan for April, it said, down from 1.18 trillion yuan in March.

The median forecast for total social financing, also known as aggregate financing, in a survey of economists by Bloomberg News was 1.2 trillion yuan.

China's economy expanded 7.0 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, slumping to a post global financial crisis low, even as Beijing took steps to bolster growth.

The country's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 7.4 percent in 2014, the slowest pace in 24 years, and the government has cut the annual growth target for 2015 to "approximately" seven percent.

The PBoC has been taking steps to boost the economy, announcing a third cut in interest rates in six months on Sunday to facilitate credit expansion and address subdued consumer inflation.

In April, it also lowered the reserve requirement ratio -- the amount of money banks must put aside as reserves -- to encourage lending, for the second time in three months.

"Weak social financing will intensify downward pressure on the real economy and further (monetary) loosening is unavoidable," China Merchants Bank analyst Liu Dongliang said in a research note.

"Combined with the economic figures released earlier today, economic growth for May and June will be under pressure," Liu said.

China released a slew of weak economic data for April on Wednesday, with consumption and investment growth figures at multi-year lows.

Multiple Chinese economic indicators missed expectations Wednesday, with consumption and investment growth figures falling to multi-year lows, underlining sluggish momentum in the world's second-largest economy.

Growth in retail sales, a key indicator of consumer spending, fell to 10.0 percent in April, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said, the weakest for nine years.

Fixed asset investment, a measure of government spending on infrastructure, expanded 12.0 percent in the first four months of the year, the lowest since 2000.

The median forecasts in polls of economists by Bloomberg News were for retail sales to rise 10.4 percent and fixed-asset investment to climb 13.5 percent.

Industrial output, which measures production at factories, workshops and mines, rose 5.9 percent in April, according to the NBS, improving from a 5.6 percent gain in March but also weaker than economists' estimate of 6.0 percent.

The statistics are the latest poor data to emerge in China, a key driver of global expansion, suggesting that stimulus measures taken by Beijing have yet to have an effect.

ANZ economists said the figures indicated GDP growth may have decelerated to below the government's annual target of 7.0 percent.

"Thus, more growth stabilisation policies could be expected to roll out," they wrote in a note.

China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.4 percent in 2014, the lowest rate in 24 years.

Expansion slowed further to 7.0 percent in the January-March period, the worst quarterly result in six years and down from 7.3 percent in the final three months of 2014.

The central People's Bank of China on Sunday announced its third interest rate cut since November, and this year has twice reduced the amount of cash lenders must keep in reserve, as well as using other measures to inject liquidity into the market.

Liu Dongliang, a Shanghai-based economist with China Merchants Bank, said the April figures showed debt-laden local governments lacked funds to invest while slowing consumption growth could indicate household incomes were being squeezed.

"The economy is still under rather big downward pressure," Liu wrote in a research note.

- 'Complicated and severe' -

Continued April falls in imports and exports announced last week added to concerns over weakening momentum in China, while persisting mild consumer inflation statistics left room for further policy loosening.

Chinese stock markets have soared in recent months on expectations that authorities will take more measures to stimulate the economy.

The bourses were mixed on Wednesday in response to the data release.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.58 percent to 4,375.76 while the Shenzhen Composite Index, which tracks stocks on China's second exchange, rose 0.82 percent to 2,445.87.

NBS spokesman Sheng Laiyun commented in a statement posted Tuesday that the Chinese economy was "operating in a reasonable range".

"Positive elements that will help the economy grow steadily continued to emerge and accumulate," he said, pointing to factors such as accelerating private-sector investment and booming online retail sales.

But he cautioned that the "complicated and severe foreign and domestic environment for economic development" was "unchanged", as reflected by the trade declines and falling factory gate prices.

The government will strengthen its economic fine-tuning to ensure a reasonable growth rate, he added.

Julian Evans-Pritchard, an analyst with research firm Capital Economics, said the effects of government policy moves would become clearer with time.

"The People's Bank's looser policy stance should begin to shore up activity in the coming months," he said in a report on the latest data.

"Policymakers... are likely to respond to any further signs of weakness by continuing to step up policy support to ensure that growth doesn't slip much further," he said.


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