A weakening forest buffer challenges EU climate goals

A weakening forest buffer challenges EU climate goals
by Erica Marchand
Paris, France (SPX) Aug 01, 2025

Europe's forests have significantly reduced their capacity to absorb carbon dioxide, threatening the EU's path to climate neutrality by 2050. A new study published in Nature by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre details this troubling decline in the forest carbon sink and lays out research and policy priorities aimed at reversing the trend.

The study emphasizes the importance of understanding forest carbon absorption as a cornerstone for climate strategy. Based on ESA-supported Earth observation data from the Climate Change Initiative's RECCAP-2 and DeepFeatures projects, researchers have identified key changes in how carbon cycles through trees, soil, and the atmosphere.

Forests, which cover 40% of EU territory, historically absorbed about 10% of greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. However, the European Environment Agency reports a 27% drop in average carbon removal by forests from 2020 to 2022 compared to the 2010-2014 period. Causes include increased logging, forest aging, intensifying droughts and heatwaves, as well as wildfires, insect infestations, and disease.

The authors call for urgent improvements in forest monitoring, including standardized and transparent carbon data collection across the EU. They advocate for advanced tools that use satellite data, AI, and in-situ observations to model long-term climate impacts and guide sustainable forest policy.

Several RECCAP-2 studies support the Nature article's conclusions. A 2024 analysis found that while Europe's net greenhouse gas emissions have declined by 25% since the 1990s, natural carbon absorption by land and vegetation has weakened. Another RECCAP-2 paper used ESA's SMOS satellite data to show that since 2016, northern hemisphere forests have become net carbon sources.

The most recent 2025 study highlights that only 6% of the 35 gigatonnes of carbon absorbed by land between 1992 and 2019 was stored in living biomass, with most sequestered in soil, deadwood, and sediments. This underscores the need to factor non-living carbon pools into climate policies.

"Improving our understanding of where carbon is stored makes a huge difference in how we assess carbon dynamics. Our research has the potential to contribute to a better assessment of the collective progress made towards achieving the purpose of the Paris Agreement to combat climate change," stated Clement Albergel, head of ESA's Actionable Climate Information section.

Research Report:Securing the forest carbon sink for the European Union's climate ambition