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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China and India manufacturing boosts recovery hopes
by Staff Writers
New Delhi (AFP) May 2, 2012

China manufacturing contracts in April: HSBC
Shanghai (AFP) May 2, 2012 - Manufacturing activity in China contracted for the sixth straight month in April but at a much slower pace, banking giant HSBC said Wednesday, lifting hopes the giant economy may have turned a corner.

HSBC's purchasing managers index (PMI) came in a 49.3 in April, up from 48.3 in March, HSBC said in a statement.

A reading below 50 indicates contraction, while anything above 50 points to expansion. The figure is also higher than the preliminary 49.1 announced by the bank on April 23.

It comes a day after official PMI data showed manufacturing activity at its highest level in 13 months in April, lifting hopes that Asia's biggest economy is picking up after a recent lull.

"As easing measures are starting to work and additional easing measures are on the way... we expect Chinese GDP growth to bottom out in (the second quarter) and recover modestly," HSBC's chief economist for China, Qu Hongbin, said in the statement.

He forecast gross domestic product (GDP) growth of more than 8.5 percent for the second half of the year.

China's economy grew 8.1 percent in the first quarter of 2012, its slowest pace in nearly three years.

Beijing has already cut bank reserve requirements twice since December as policymakers aim to boost lending to spur growth. Analysts widely expect the government to further loosen monetary policy as it looks to kickstart growth.

HSBC's PMI figures are typically more pessimistic than China's official numbers, which on Tuesday showed activity at its highest since March last year.

Official PMI hit 53.3 in April, the fifth consecutive month of expansion, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said Tuesday.

Analysts say the HSBC survey puts greater emphasis on small firms, which have suffered more in the current economic slowdown than state-owned giants.

"Both the HSBC and the official PMI readings showed there was an improvement in April and China's economic growth is further stabilising," Liao Qun, chief China economist for Citic Bank International, told AFP.

"China will continue to moderately loosen its monetary policy this year in a gradual manner, mainly through cuts in banks' reserve requirements," he said.

Analysts have fretted recently that China's economy was headed for a hard landing as Europe's sovereign debt crisis and the weak US economy hit exports, a key driver of growth.


Factory activity picked up pace in Asia with China showing stronger momentum and India also gathering steam, according to business surveys released on Wednesday, buoying recovery hopes in the region.

HSBC's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a measure of manufacturing activity, increased for China in April, suggesting the health of the world's second-largest economy was improving.

India's factory sector also edged higher month-on-month, led by new orders, the HSBC's Indian PMI suggested, striking a brighter note for the South Asian country that is facing escalating economic and fiscal challenges.

"These are still soft numbers but we may be seeing Chinese -- and Asian growth -- starting to stabilise," Brian Jackson, senior emerging markets strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong, told AFP.

HSBC's China PMI improved to 49.3 in April from 48.3 in March and "confirms the pace of China's slowdown has stabilized", said HSBC China economist Hongbin Qu.

An index reading over 50 signals growth while below 50 indicates contraction.

While HSBC's China index reading was not as strong as Beijing's official PMI reading the previous day which hit a 13-month high of 53.3 in April, the HSBC economist said: "We expect Chinese GDP growth to bottom out in the second quarter and recover modestly to over 8.5 percent in the second half."

China's annual growth slowed to 8.1 percent in the first quarter of 2012 from 8.9 percent in the previous three months -- its slowest pace in nearly three years.

"These (PMI) numbers are good news along with the numbers out of the US," said Royal Bank of Canada's Jackson, referring to the US Institute for Supply Management, which reported a surprise rise Tuesday in its widely watched manufacturing index.

Strong orders lifted India's PMI manufacturing activity to 54.9 in April from 54.7 in March even as rising prices spotlighted still stubborn inflation risks.

"Business conditions seem to have improved a bit and the increase in order flows from domestic and overseas customers suggest the pace of growth could hold up in coming months," said HSBC's chief India economist Leif Eskesen.

There was also upbeat data from South Korea with factory output rising at the fastest clip in more than a year as new orders sustained a third straight month of manufacturing expansion.

Monetary easing by key trading partners, such as China, "is filtering through to higher demand for Korean goods", said HSBC economist Ronald Man.

The firmer Asian manufacturing numbers swept many Asian stock markets higher with Hong Kong rising 1.02 percent, Shanghai climbing 1.76 percent and Seoul adding 0.86 percent even as gloom over eurozone output remained a bearish factor.

The Markit Purchasing Managers' Index for the euro zone slumped to 45.9 from 47.7 in March, signalling shrinking of the manufacturing sector, and suggesting a growing economic chasm between Europe and the rest of the world.

Taiwan's manufacturing sector grew in April, albeit at a weaker pace, with HSBC saying low demand in the West would constrain the island's export expansion for a while longer, making domestic demand an important driver.

In Indonesia, manufacturing also grew at a slightly slower clip in April.

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China signs deal to increase investments in Europe
Brussels (AFP) May 2, 2012 - China and Belgium set up an investment fund to pump more Chinese money into leading European firms Wednesday during a visit by premier-in-waiting Li Keqiang.

The fund, with capital of 17 million euros, will "invest along with Chinese companies in European groups," said a statement by China Investment Corporation (CIC), the country's sovereign fund, Belgium's federal investment and participation group (SFPI/FPIM) and A Capital, the a fund manager specialising in investments between China and Europe.

"SFPI's 8.5 million euros will be destined for projects in Belgium, the remainder possibly invested elsewhere in Europe," a Belgian government source told AFP.

Belgian Foreign Minister Didier Reynders said Tuesday day that "we try to be the gateway to Europe for Chinese investors."

Belgium and China also signed a farm deal during talks between Li, expected to be named Chinese premier next year, and Prime Minister Elio Di Rupo.

Di Rupo brought up the isue of human rights during the talks, the premier's spokesman Guillaume De Walque told AFP.

He communicated his "concerns on the matter. He also said there was a lot of emotion in Europe about this subject," De Walque added.

Though Li will also be meeting European Union leaders on Thursday, no press conference has been organised during his three-day visit.

Lou Jiwei, who heads the CIC, said Beijing believed the fund "will ensure for us a larger access to the best European companies. This agreement is part of CIC strategy which is to seek long-term investment opportunities in European firms."

Fund manager A Capital co-invests with Chinese public and private investors in firms with a turnover of over 100 million euros who are leaders in their field. Favoured sectors are technology, brands, distribution and the environment.

On Thursday, Li will sign off on three joint statements -- on energy security, electricity market reform and a hands-on "sustainable urbanisation" scheme reflecting "the widening of the agenda" in EU-China relations, as one EU diplomat put it.

Agreed at a February EU-China summit, it aims to bring the two sides together to build energy-efficient 'green cities' as China addresses a historically unprecedented transformation from a rural nation to a land of mega-cities.

Highlighting the power focus, energy ministers from the 27-nation EU will gather in Brussels on Thursday to meet members of China's National Energy Commission to discuss electricity markets.



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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China manufacturing at 13-month high
Beijing (AFP) May 1, 2012
China's manufacturing activity rose in April to a 13-month high, official data showed Tuesday, indicating the world's number two economy may have bottomed out in the second quarter. The official purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 53.3 from 53.1 in March, its fifth consecutive month of expansion, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in a statement. A reading above 50 ... read more


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