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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China manufacturing shows 'modest improvement': HSBC
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) Aug 1, 2012

Standard Chartered posts record H1 net profit
Hong Kong (AFP) Aug 1, 2012 - Standard Chartered on Wednesday said its first-half net profit rose 12 percent to a record high thanks to strong revenue growth, despite an increasingly challenged economic environment.

The Asia-focused emerging market bank's net profit for the six months to June 30 rose to $2.81 billion compared to $2.52 billion in the same period in 2011, it said in a statement.

The result is above the average forecast of US$2.7 billion, according to a poll by Dow Jones Newswires.

Revenue rose to $9.51 billion from $8.76 billion a year earlier.

Chief Executive Peter Sands said the lender was "on course to deliver on its target of double-digit revenue growth" despite the US dollar's strength against Asian currencies and an "increasingly complex regulatory environment".

He said the London-based bank was in a good position to invest for long-term growth.

"Given the opportunities we see arising from the turbulence and the disarray of our competitors, we are stepping up the pace of investment," he said.

"Most of this is to fuel organic growth. Whilst we do look out for acquisitions to build scale, get market access, or gain critical capabilities, the primary driver of growth is organic investment in our businesses."

The bank's branch networks in its key markets of China, India and Africa would expand in the coming months, with the opening of its 100th outlets in China and India by early next year.

In Africa, Sands said the bank was "significantly stepping up the pace of network expansion", with 250 branches expected in the next two years from the present 183 in 14 markets.

Standard Chartered, which survived the global financial crisis without state assistance, has a strong footprint across emerging markets.

Its 2011 net profit rose 12 percent year-on-year to a record 3.53 billion euros ($4.75 billion), boosted by strong performance in developing economies.



China's manufacturing activity picked up modestly to a three-month high in July as factory output rose, boosted by government measures to stimulate the economy, HSBC said Wednesday.

The British banking giant said its closely watched purchasing managers' index (PMI), which gauges nationwide manufacturing activity, posted a reading of 49.3 in July.

That was better than the 48.2 recorded in June and represented a three-month high and the biggest month-on-month increase in 21 months, HSBC said, though was slightly below the preliminary figure of 49.5 announced last week.

A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 points to contraction.

Qu Hongbin, HSBC's chief economist for China, attributed what he called a "modest improvement" to the early effects of government measures to boost the economy.

"But this is far from inspiring, as China's growth slowdown has not been reversed meaningfully and downside pressures persist with external markets continuing to deteriorate," he said in statement.

Slowing economic growth in the United States and Europe's ongoing sovereign debt crisis have dented growth in China, the world's largest exporter.

Beijing has taken various steps to boost growth as the economy has faltered, expanding at its slowest pace in more than three years during the second quarter.

These include the rare move of slashing interest rates twice within a month to boost the economy, and lowering the amount of funds banks must keep in reserve, in a bid to spur lending and jump start the economy.

Official PMI figures also released Wednesday showed that China's manufacturing activity weakened to an eight-month low in July.

The government's purchasing managers' index (PMI) slipped to 50.1 last month from 50.2 in June, according to a statement released by the National Bureau of Statistics.

Analysts say the divergence in the official and private PMI surveys is caused by HSBC giving more weight to small firms, which have suffered more than state-owned giants in the current economic downturn.

The official July reading was the lowest since 49.0 last November, and below the expectations of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, who forecast it at 50.4.

Alistair Thornton of IHS Global Insight said that while the figure was disappointing, it suggested manufacturing activity may be bottoming out.

"This is not the bump that authorities are looking for," he said. "But the good news is that things are not getting significantly worse."

China is facing a loss of momentum in its economy, with year-on-year growth slowing to 7.6 percent in the second quarter.

That was the worst performance since the world economic crisis of 2008-2009 and marked the sixth straight quarter of slackening growth as global problems, including the eurozone debt crisis, hit home.

"Industrial profitability is bad, balance sheets are stressed, the banking sector is feeling the impact of a debt build-up, and capital continues to flee the country," Thornton said. "These restrain a smooth recovery."

The International Monetary Fund said last week that China's economy will rebound in the second half of this year to expand eight percent in 2012 as government policies to spur growth take effect.

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Japan recovering, faces debt, euro risks: IMF
Washington (AFP) Aug 1, 2012 - Japan is recovering from the 2011 earthquake and tsunami disaster but the euro crisis, its huge public debt and a Chinese slump dampens hope over 2.5 percent growth this year, the IMF said Wednesday.

In a report on annual consultations with Tokyo, the International Monetary Fund urged the government to do more to shrink its massive debt of over 125 percent of GDP under a package of structural reforms.

Japan is grappling with a debt standing at more than double gross domestic product, the highest ratio in the industrialized world, which is poised to grow as a rapidly ageing population turns to public pensions.

Reconstruction spending and strong consumer demand would push GDP growth to about 2.5 percent this year, but the trend would slow in 2013 to 1.5 percent as reconstruction projects decrease.

"Concerns about fiscal sustainability are likely dampening investment plans," Jerald Schiff, deputy director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific department, told reporters in Washington.

"Low growth makes it more difficult to exit deflation and continued deflation complicates efforts to lower the deficit," he said.

Its economy showed "remarkable resilience and adaptability" in the aftermath of last year's crippling disaster that was worsened by a nuclear meltdown, the Fund said.

Yet recovery in the short term could be hamstrung by "the possibility of a further escalation of the crisis in Europe and a sharper-than-expected slowing of the Chinese economy," it added.

Most of the nation's debt is held domestically, allowing Tokyo to escape much of the criticism that has befallen eurozone countries, including Greece.

Over the medium term, a prolonged global downturn and Tokyo's limited progress on structural reforms would expose Japan to continued "low growth and deflation, a toxic mix that would worsen public debt dynamics substantially."

The Washington-based IMF welcomed as an "important first step" Tokyo's plan to double the country's sales tax to 10 percent by 2015, a deeply unpopular move that the government said was crucial to put Japan's fiscal house in order.

The legislation has passed the lower house of parliament, though it remains unclear whether it would get a stamp of approval in the upper house before becoming law.

"But beyond that, we think that further measures will be needed both to raise revenue and curb growth in social security and other spending," Schiff said.

The report recommended Tokyo reach an overall fiscal consolidation of 10 percent of GDP over the next decade by cutting spending and increasing revenue.

To raise its potential growth, Japan should increase the participation of women and older workers in the labor force, as well as ease restrictions on immigration and east access to financing for startups and small businesses.

The report called for pension reform, boosting productivity by easing regulations in the agricultural and service sectors, and "participation in additional free trade agreements."

"While Japan is already increasingly integrating into the rest of Asia, we think that continued efforts, including through participation in free trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, could have significant payoff," Schiff said.



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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China's leaders call for prioritising stable growth
Beijing (AFP) July 31, 2012
China's top leaders warned of continued downward pressure on the world's second-largest economy and vowed to make economic growth a top priority, state press reported Tuesday. "Looking at the domestic economy, the most obvious problem is downward pressure remains substantial," Xinhua news agency quoted Premier Wen Jiabao as saying at a meeting of top politicians. "We must resolutely main ... read more


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