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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China slowdown fears deepen as output weakens
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) Sept 9, 2012

China industrial output rose 8.9% year-on-year in August
Beijing (AFP) Sept 9, 2012 - Production at China's factories, workshops and mines weakened in August, the government said Sunday, in a fresh sign of slowdown in the world's second-largest economy.

Industrial output increased 8.9 percent in August compared with the same month last year, the National Bureau of Statistics announced. That represented a slowdown from the 9.2 percent gain recorded in July.

Output for the first eight months of 2012, meanwhile, rose 10.1 percent compared with the same period in 2011, the National Bureau of Statistics said.

Retail sales -- China's main gauge of consumer spending -- were 13.2 percent higher in August year-on-year, the bureau said, marginally better than the 13.1 percent increase recorded in July.

Urban fixed asset investments, a key measure of government spending on infrastructure, rose 20.2 percent in the first eight months of 2012 compared with the same period the year before, the bureau also said.

China's economy expanded 7.6 percent in the second quarter through the end of June for its weakest performance in three years, marking the sixth straight quarter of slower growth.

Data in the current third quarter have remained weak as the slack global economy dents demand for exports and domestic activity has been sluggish.


China's industrial output weakened in August to its lowest level in more than three years, official data showed Sunday, in the latest sign of a deepening slowdown in the world's second-largest economy.

Production at China's factories, workshops and mines increased 8.9 percent in August compared with the same month last year, the National Bureau of Statistics announced.

That represented a weakening from the 9.2 percent gain recorded in July. The August result was also the worst since a similar increase of 8.9 percent in May of 2009 amid the global economic crisis, according to previous data.

Anxiety over prospects for China's economy, a key engine of world growth, have been increasing as government efforts to bolster demand through more accommodative monetary policy have shown little sign of working.

China's economy expanded 7.6 percent in the second quarter through the end of June for its weakest performance in three years, marking the sixth straight quarter of slower growth.

Data in the current third quarter have remained weak as the slack global economy, beset by uncertainty amid Europe's debt prolonged crisis, dents demand for China's exports and domestic activity has been sluggish.

Urban fixed asset investments -- a key measure of government spending on infrastructure -- rose 20.2 percent in the first eight months of 2012 compared with the same period the year before, the bureau also said Sunday.

That figure, however, also suggests the situation worsened in August as it came in less than the 20.4 percent that was recorded for the first seven months of the year through July.

Retail sales, China's main gauge of consumer spending, were 13.2 percent higher in August year-on-year, the bureau said, marginally better than the 13.1 percent increase recorded in July.

Earlier Sunday, the bureau also announced that China's inflation rate accelerated slightly in August amid higher costs for food, potentially limiting the government's ability to enact fresh monetary stimulus measures.

Consumer prices rose 2.0 percent year-on-year as food prices increased 3.4 percent. Inflation stood at 1.8 percent in July.

Chinese authorities have taken steps this year to boost growth by cutting rates twice in quick succession and slashing the amount of funds banks must keep in reserve to boost lending.

Given continued weak figures, analysts have been expecting further monetary loosening steps to fire up growth, though the slight rise in consumer price inflation in August makes another decrease in interest rates less of an option because of the inflationary risks they pose.

"The likelihood of a cut is now clearly smaller than last month," IHS Global Insight economists Ren Xianfang and Alistair Thornton said in a report, emphasising that higher consumer prices make it harder to "absorb the inflationary pressure" of monetary stimulus.

Rather, they expect the government to use other tools, such as fiscal stimulus, to help bolster the economy.

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China's inflation rate accelerates in August
Beijing (AFP) Sept 9, 2012 - China's inflation rate accelerated slightly in August amid higher costs for food, official data showed Sunday, potentially limiting the government's ability to enact fresh stimulus measures.

Consumer prices rose 2.0 percent year-on-year, the National Bureau of Statistics said, as food prices increased 3.4 percent. Inflation stood at 1.8 percent in July.

Analysts say the figures could make moves such as further cuts to interest rates less likely because of the inflationary risks they pose.

Producer prices -- which measure costs of goods as they leave factories -- declined 3.5 percent year-on-year, falling for the sixth straight month, NBS data showed. Producer prices fell 2.9 percent in July.

China's economy expanded 7.6 percent in the second quarter through the end of June for its weakest performance in three years and marking the sixth straight quarter of slower growth.

The government is targeting expansion in gross domestic product of 7.5 percent for 2012. That would mark a significant slowdown for the world's second-largest economy, which grew 9.3 percent in 2011 and 10.4 percent in 2010.

Data in the current third quarter have remained weak as the slack global economy dents demand for exports and domestic activity weakens.

Chinese authorities have taken steps this year to boost growth by cutting interest rates twice in quick succession and slashing the amount of funds banks must keep in reserve to boost lending, but with little impact so far.

Given continued weak figures, analysts have been expecting authorities to take further monetary loosening steps to fire up growth, though the slight rise in consumer price inflation in August could call that scenario into question.

"The likelihood of a cut is now clearly smaller than last month," IHS Global Insight economists Ren Xianfang and Alistair Thornton said in a report on the August inflation data, emphasising that higher consumer prices make it harder to "absorb the inflationary pressure" of monetary stimulus.

Rather, they expect the government to use other tools, such as fiscal stimulus, to help gird the economy.

Indeed, state media reported Friday that that China has approved a massive infrastructure package worth more than 1.0 trillion yuan ($158 billion).

The top economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, last week announced approval of 55 infrastructure projects ranging from subway lines to highways, reports said.

The official Xinhua news agency described the package of projects as a "stimulus plan" though the government did not use that language when announcing the approvals.

China carried out a massive 4.0 trillion yuan fiscal stimulus package in the wake of the global financial crisis in 2008.



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