China straps in for 'mercurial' Trump's second term

China straps in for 'mercurial' Trump's second term
By Isabel Kua, with Luna Lin
Beijing (AFP) Nov 6, 2024

China can buckle in for another four years of tariffs, tensions and tough talk under a second Donald Trump presidency, experts told AFP -- though they said the billionaire's openness to deals could play in Beijing's favour.

World leaders lined up to congratulate Trump on Wednesday as the former president neared his election victory and a return to the White House.

Beijing declared its hope that the two countries could enjoy a "peaceful coexistence" in the future, while remaining tight-lipped on how precisely the mercurial magnate's victory could affect ties.

But experts said that, behind closed doors, China was preparing for a rocky few years.

"There will be more turbulence, more conflict, more uncertainties and even more risks in Sino-US relations in the next four years," Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Shanghai's Fudan University, told AFP.

Both US presidential candidates had pledged to get tougher on Beijing.

But Trump upped the ante, pledging to slap 60-percent tariffs on all Chinese goods entering the United States.

That proposal could hit $500 billion worth of Chinese exports, asset managers PineBridge Investments have suggested.

Memories of the first Trump administration are likely still fresh in the minds of policymakers in Beijing.

During his time as president, Trump launched a gruelling trade war with China, imposing swingeing tariffs on Chinese goods for what he said were unfair practices by Beijing, such as theft of US technology and currency manipulation.

- Trade hit hard -

And with the Chinese economy battling some of its worst growth in years, Beijing will be loath to get dragged even deeper into a spat with its largest trading partner, analysts say.

"Economic and trade relations will be hit the hardest," Fudan University's Wu said.

"He (Trump) has already talked about playing the tariff card against China again."

Adam Slater, lead economist at Oxford Economics, estimates the proposed tariffs could slash bilateral trade by as much as 70 percent and "cause hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of trade to be eliminated or redirected".

But some analysts said the 60-percent figure could merely be an opening gambit by a man who has always touted "the art of the deal".

"The thing that the Chinese have learned about Trump is that he would say a lot of things... because he's so mercurial, he won't exactly follow through on all these threats," Hoo Tiang Boon, an associate professor at Nanyang Technological University, said.

"He's actually open to negotiation, but yet, at the same time, he's prone to extremes."

- 'Very strong relationship' -

The tycoon has made much of his reputation as a dealmaker and his rapport -- and even admiration -- for autocratic leaders like President Xi Jinping.

In October, he touted his "very strong relationship" with the Chinese leader -- and even claimed he would be able to talk Xi out of an attack on self-ruled Taiwan with threats of 150 percent tariffs.

"He respects me and he knows I'm f*cking crazy," he told the Wall Street Journal.

It's not yet clear if the next four years could see Trump pay a return visit to Beijing, where Xi hosted him in 2017 -- or if he could host the Chinese president in Washington DC.

"Trump prides himself on making deals and on personal relationships with other leaders," Benjamin Ho at the China programme at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies said.

"He will try to squeeze China on areas where he can and is likely to adopt an American first policy."

And analysts think that Trump's transaction style -- and long-standing contempt for transnational groupings like NATO -- could stand in China's favour as it seeks to reshape the global order.

"His America-first isolationist approach is likely to weaken Western alliances and would open up more pathways for China to expand their global influence," Nanyang Technological University's Hoo said.

"This would present openings to China, at least from a foreign policy perspective."

But while that could help relieve pressure on China diplomatically, Fudan's Wu said the trade trumps all other concerns.

"He may not value relations with allies as much as the Biden administration did, and that may affect the willingness of allies to coordinate with the US on China," he said.

"But I think what we are most concerned about -- as I said -- is still the pressure from the trade side."