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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China's manufacturing slumps in August
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) Sept 1, 2012


China's manufacturing activity slumped in August to a nine-month low, official figures showed Saturday, in the latest sign of serious weakness in the world's second-largest economy.

The government's purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.2 in August from 50.1 in July, according to a statement released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics.

A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion, while one below 50 points to contraction.

The reading was the lowest since 49.0 in November last year, and below the median forecast of 50.0 in a survey of 11 economists by Dow Jones Newswires.

"Not only did the August PMI continue to decrease, but the scope of the decline got bigger and fell below 50 percent," Zhang Liqun, an analyst with the State Council's Development Research Center, was quoted as saying in the statement.

Zhang added that the latest result "reflects the manufacturing industry is in a state of contraction".

China's economy weakened to an expansion of 7.6 percent in the second quarter up until the end of June, the worst performance in three years and marking the sixth straight quarter of slower growth.

In the current third quarter, July figures for trade, industrial output and retail sales came in weak, raising concerns that government efforts to stimulate growth may be insufficient.

China's economy is also suffering from declining investment from abroad. Foreign direct investment fell 8.7 percent in July, the worst decline since December. For the first seven months of 2012, FDI fell 3.6 percent on year.

Authorities have tried to boost the economy with interest rate cuts and by lowering the amount of reserves that banks must keep on hand in a bid to spur the kind of lending that could stimulate a rebound.

"China's manufacturing sector continues to struggle, weighed down by a significant domestic slowdown, a wholly unsupportive external climate and a completely insufficient policy response," IHS Global Insight economists Ren Xianfang and Alistair Thornton said in a report reacting to the PMI data.

They added that the economy is facing various stresses, including the eurozone crisis, capital outflows and lack of demand for borrowing.

Policy caution amid fears of going overboard on stimulus measures as well as the distraction of a pending once-a-decade makeover in the country's leadership are factors as well.

"Minds are not solely focused on the economy," they wrote of the coming leadership change.

The official PMI figures came just over a week after British banking giant HSBC's closely watched purchasing managers' index hit a preliminary reading of 47.8 for August, also the lowest since November in that survey.

HSBC is scheduled to release its final PMI figure for August on Monday.

Analysts say the divergence in the official and private PMI surveys is caused by HSBC giving more weight to small firms, which have suffered more than state-owned giants in the current economic downturn.

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Top businessman says impossible to sell 'India story'
New Delhi (AFP) Sept 1, 2012 - One of India's top businessmen has slammed the government over its economic policies, saying it is no longer possible to sell the "India story".

Companies have long griped about India's byzantine rules and suffocating bureaucracy, but perceived inconsistency in government policy, stalled economic reforms and a spate of political scandals have soured the investment mood.

"The world expected a lot from us," NR Narayana Murthy, chairman emeritus of Bangalore-based software giant Infosys, said in a televised interview Saturday.

"We have fallen far short of expectations and it's no longer possible to sell the 'India story'," Murthy told ET NOW, referring to investor expectations that Asia's third-largest economy would be a turbo-charged performer.

"I meet a lot of chief executives outside India and earlier India was mentioned once every three times China was mentioned. But now, if China is mentioned 30 times, India is not even mentioned once," he said.

The attack by Murthy, who founded one of India's largest software giants, on the Congress government of Premier Manmohan Singh was unusually outspoken for an Indian businessman.

"We have cut our own legs off by our inaction, by our policies," Murthy said.

Data Friday showed India's growth remained stuck at three-year lows of 5.5 percent, a high figure by developed nations' standards but far below the near double-digit growth of much of the past decade.

Murthy said that controversial anti-tax-avoidance rules proposed earlier this year that included a plan to tax takeovers retroactively had spooked foreign investors. The government is now reviewing the plans.

To "change the law on a retrospective basis is actually like taking a pistol and shooting ourselves", he told India's NDTV.

Overseas-investor confidence has tumbled with foreign direct investment for the quarter to June sliding year-on-year by 67 percent to $4.43 billion.

India's ability to attract foreign investment is crucial because it urgently needs funds to upgrade dilapidated airports, roads, ports and other infrastructure in order to ease bottlenecks and spur slowing economic growth.

A government expert panel proposed on Saturday that the government delay implementation of the measures to prevent tax avoidance until 2016, instead of 2013, a suggestion that could cheer investor sentiment.



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POLITICAL ECONOMY
Top businessman says impossible to sell 'India story'
New Delhi (AFP) Sept 1, 2012
One of India's top businessmen has slammed the government over its economic policies, saying it is no longer possible to sell the "India story". Companies have long griped about India's byzantine rules and suffocating bureaucracy, but perceived inconsistency in government policy, stalled economic reforms and a spate of political scandals have soured the investment mood. "The world expect ... read more


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