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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Climate vs. weather: Extreme events narrow the doubts
by Staff Writers
Paris (AFP) Aug 22, 2012

Philippines sets up climate change fund
Manila (AFP) Aug 21, 2012 - Philippine President Benigno Aquino has signed a law creating a one billion peso (about $24 million) "survival fund" to combat the effects of climate change, a government official said Tuesday.

The law is meant to fund climate adaptation projects in a country battered by about 20 typhoons a year that cause large-scale deaths and damage, said Climate Change Commission deputy head Mary Anne Lucille Sering.

Philippine officials as well as international experts have said the growing intensity of the annual typhoons are a result of climate change.

"Now, we have the means to make our communities safer against the intensifying effects of climate change," Sering said in a statement.

The law, signed Friday, would use the survival fund to bankroll projects in water resource management and boost forecasting and early warning systems for climate-related hazards, Sering said.

It would also be used to guarantee risk insurance for farmers in case of crop damage, she added.


Heatwaves, drought and floods that have struck the northern hemisphere for the third summer running are narrowing doubts that man-made warming is disrupting Earth's climate system, say some scientists.

Climate experts as a group are reluctant to ascribe a single extreme event or season to global warming.

Weather, they argue, has to be assessed over far longer periods to confirm a shift in the climate and whether natural factors or fossil-fuel emissions are the cause.

But for some, such caution is easing.

A lengthening string of brutal weather events is going hand in hand with record-breaking rises in temperatures and greenhouse-gas levels, an association so stark that it can no longer be dismissed as statistical coincidence, they say.

"We prefer to look at average annual temperatures on a global scale, rather than extreme temperatures," said Jean Jouzel, vice chairman of the UN's Nobel-winning scientists, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Even so, according to computer models, "over the medium and long term, one of the clearest signs of climate change is a rise in the frequency of heatwaves", he said.

"Over the last 50 years, we have seen that as warming progresses, heatwaves are becoming more and more frequent," Jouzel said.

"If we don't do anything, the risk of a heatwave occurring will be 10 times higher by 2100 compared with the start of the century."

The past three months have seen some extraordinary weather in the United States, Europe and East and Southeast Asia.

The worst drought in more than 50 years hit the US Midwest breadbasket while forest fires stoked by fierce heat and dry undergrowth erupted in California, France, Greece, Italy, Croatia and Spain.

Heavy rains flooded Manila and Beijing and China's eastern coast was hit by an unprecedented three typhoons in a week.

Last month was the warmest ever recorded for land in the northern hemisphere and a record high for the contiguous United States, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Globally, the temperature in July was the fourth highest since records began in 1880, it said.

James Hansen, arguably the world's most famous climate scientist (and a bogeyman to climate skeptics), contends the link between extreme heat events and global warming is now all but irrefutable.

The evidence, he says, comes not from computer simulations but from weather observations themselves.

In a study published this month in the peer-reviewed US journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), Hansen and colleagues compared temperatures over the past three decades to a baseline of 1951-80, a period of relative stability.

Over the last 30 years, there was 0.5-0.6 C (0.9-1.0 F) of warming, a rise that seems small but "is already having important effects", said Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

During the baseline period, cold summers occurred about a third of the time, but this fell to about 10 percent in the 30-year period that followed.

Hot summers which during the baseline period occurred 33 percent of the time, rose to about 75 percent in the three decades that followed.

Even more remarkable, though, was the geographical expansion of heatwaves.

During the baseline period, an unusually hot summer would yield a heatwave that would cover just a few tenths of one percent of the world's land area.

Today, though, an above-the-norm summer causes heatwaves that in total affect about 10 percent of the land surface.

"The extreme summer climate anomalies in Texas in 2011, in Moscow in 2010 and in France in 2003 almost certainly would not have occurred in the absence of global warming with its resulting shift of the anomaly situation," says the paper.

In March, an IPCC special report said there was mounting evidence of a shift in patterns of extreme events in some regions, including more intense and longer droughts and rainfall. But it saw no increases in the frequency, length or severity of tropical storms.

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Study ranks cities' flood vulnerability
Leeds, England (UPI) Aug 21, 2012 -Of the world's cities, Shanghai is the most vulnerable to serious flooding, a study by European researchers suggests.

Researchers from the Netherlands and the University of Leeds in England studied nine coastal cities around the world and used that information to devise a new method to calculate the flood vulnerability of cities.

The method includes measuring the level of economic activity in a city, its speed of recovery, and social issues such as the number of flood shelters, the awareness of people about flood risks and the number of disabled people in the population, a Leeds release said Tuesday.

The study analyzed the vulnerability to coastal flooding of nine cities built on river deltas: Casablanca (Morocco), Calcutta (India), Dhaka (Bangladesh), Buenos Aires (Argentina), Osaka (Japan), Shanghai (China), Manila (Philippines), Marseille (France) and Rotterdam (the Netherlands).

The highly prosperous Shanghai is more vulnerable than much poorer cities such as Dhaka, the study found.

"Vulnerability is a complex issue," Leeds researcher Nigel Wright said. "It is not just about your exposure to flooding, but the effect it actually has on communities and business and how much a major flood disrupts economic activity.

"Our index looks at how cities are prepared for the worst -- for example, do they have flood defenses, do they have buildings that are easy to clean up and repair after the flood? It is important to know how quickly a city can recover from a major flood."

Shanghai's is particularly vulnerable because it is exposed to powerful storm surges and the land is subsiding as sea levels rise, the researchers said.

"A 1-in-100-year flood in Shanghai would lead to widespread damage, with serious consequences for the city, across China and, through wider economic links, for the whole world," Wright said.

The study was published in the journal Natural Hazards.



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Experiment would test cloud geoengineering as way to slow warming
Seattle WA (SPX) Aug 21, 2012
Even though it sounds like science fiction, researchers are taking a second look at a controversial idea that uses futuristic ships to shoot salt water high into the sky over the oceans, creating clouds that reflect sunlight and thus counter global warming. University of Washington atmospheric physicist Rob Wood describes a possible way to run an experiment to test the concept on a small s ... read more


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