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POLITICAL ECONOMY
Federal Reserve governor defends QE3
by Julia Zhu ,Medill News Service
Washington (UPI) Oct 12, 2012

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U.S. Federal Reserve Board Gov. Jeremy Stein defended the Fed's recently announced policy of the third round mortgage-backed security purchases and restated its priority is to lower the unemployment rate and boost the U.S. economy.

Stein spoke Thursday at the Brookings Institution and said the theory behind large-scale asset purchases -- LSAPs -- an unconventional tool that Federal Open Market Committee decided to use to further promote the U.S. economic activities. The policy is also called quantitative easing.

"To be clear on where I stand, I support the committee's decision of last month," Stein said. "Given where we are and what we know, I firmly believe that this decision was the right one."

Stein pointed out Fed's dual mandate is the point of departure for any analysis of monetary policy -- "to foster maximum employment and price stability."

"Unemployment remains painfully high and, in my opinion, well above the long-run structural rate of unemployment," he said.

"Moreover, smoothing through the ups and downs of incoming data, it appears that the economy is growing at a pace such that, absent policy action, progress on reducing unemployment will likely be slow for some time."

When asked how to respond to the widespread concern that inflation might be caused by the Fed's policy, Stein showed strong disagreement.

"I understand the economic logic and how the model works ... In my view, it's just not right. I just disagree fundamentally with that," Stein said during the discussion led by Donald Kohn, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Stein said in the speech that "inflation is subdued, running at or below our long-run objective of 2 percent, while inflation expectations remain well-anchored."

Other economists appear to agree with Stein on this point.

"We still have a long way to inflation. The economy is still too sluggish to worry about inflation right now," said Brian Jones, a senior U.S. economist at Societe Generale in New York. "I think (Quantitative Easing 3) is absolutely the right decision to make."

"I think there is no near-term for inflation but Fed is laying groundwork for inflation," said David Sloan, a senior economist at 4cast Inc. in New York. "Also we've got fiscal cliff coming up. So QE3 will be offset from the fiscal side. We all know that fiscal cliff might bring U.S. economy back to recession."

Another issue raised during the conference was the policy's possible repercussions on the rest of the world. Stein said there is no "corresponding effect."

"One of the things that Federal Reserve and other central banks can do that's positive for the other countries is to raise growth," Stein said.

The Federal Open Market Committee decided during its September meeting to increase policy accommodation by purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month, also known as the third round of quantitative easing. The committee also decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 0.25 percent and extend the low rate at least through mid-2015.

"I am hopeful that these actions by the Federal Reserve will help to give economic growth a much needed boost," Stein said. "At the same time, I am keenly aware of the many uncertainties we still have about the workings of nonconventional policies, and of LSAPs in particular."

The U.S. unemployment rate in September dropped to 7.8 percent, marking the first time that figure has been less than 8 percent since January 2009. The second quarter gross domestic product, however, fell to 1.3 percent from 2 percent in the first quarter this year.

"There have been a lot of improvements in September. But these numbers are volatile and maybe inaccurate," Sloan said. "I think the September unemployment rate exaggerated the improvement in the labor market.

"There should be more QE measures in the early 2013. The ease will be even more aggressive than it is now."

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Fiscal policy should be 'growth friendly': IMF body
Tokyo (AFP) Oct 13, 2012 - The world economy needs to balance austerity with growth if it is to recover fully from the global financial crisis, a key IMF committee said in Tokyo on Saturday.

"Fiscal policy should be appropriately calibrated to be as growth-friendly as possible," the International Monetary and Financial Committee said in a communique.

The statement came after days of back and forth between those -- led by Germany -- urging no let-up from belt-tightening and those arguing for a loosening of the grip of austerity.

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said on Thursday she was happy for Greece -- struggling under the weight of cuts demanded by international creditors -- to have two more years to meet its deficit-reduction targets.

But the following day, Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said there was "no alternative" to cutting bloated national balance sheets.

Speaking to reporters, Lagarde played down growing speculation of a rift on the depth and timeline for painful austerity cuts in debt-addled eurozone economies.

"There have been a lot of debates on fiscal adjustment. And what sometimes has been presented as disagreement is more about perception than reality," she said.

"We all recognise credible, medium-term adjustments are necessary in all advanced economies... (but) the pace and type of measures obviously need to be calibrated on a country-by-country basis. It cannot be one-size-fits-all."

She added that fiscal policy alone "is not sufficient".

"On these points, there was complete agreement," she said.

The International Monetary and Financial Committee, which issued Saturday's communique, is a body made of up two dozen central bankers and government ministers who advise the IMF's board on its work.

Days after the Fund warned the world's economy was growing at a slower rate than previously thought, the committee said there remained "substantial uncertainties and downside risks".

"Key policy steps have been announced, but effective and timely implementation is critical to rebuild confidence," it said.

"We need to act decisively to break negative feedback loops and restore the global economy to a path of strong, sustainable and balanced growth.

"Advanced economies should deliver the necessary structural reforms and implement credible fiscal plans. Emerging market economies should preserve or use policy flexibility as appropriate to facilitate a response to adverse shocks and support growth."

The communique said monetary easing -- like that practised by the US Federal Reserve and other central banks -- had been helpful, but it was vital that "credible medium-term fiscal consolidation plans" were put in place.

"In the euro area, significant progress has been made. The ECB's decision on Outright Monetary Transactions and the launch of the European Stability Mechanism are welcome. But further steps are necessary.

"We look forward to timely implementation of an effective banking and a stronger fiscal union to strengthen the monetary union's resilience, and structural reforms to boost growth and employment at the national level."

The communique said Washington had to resolve the looming problem of the so-called "fiscal cliff" -- a collision of tax hikes and reduced public spending due to hit early next year.

Observers have warned this could knock the already-wobbly US recovery off track.

The committee said that Japan, the world's third largest economy, which has struggled to refloat itself after a series of set-backs, including the quake-tsunami disasters last year, needed to secure funding for this year's budget.

The Japanese government has warned it could soon face shutdown if a deadlocked parliament does not take its foot off the brake and allow it to borrow more money.



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POLITICAL ECONOMY
World economy needs action from China, EU: Geithner
Tokyo (AFP) Oct 13, 2012
US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Saturday the global economy was on the mend, but more needed to be done to stoke domestic demand in China and fix Europe's fiscal woes. Geithner, in Tokyo for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, said China needed to persuade its people to buy more and debt-wracked Europe needed to put into practice the decisio ... read more


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