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POLITICAL ECONOMY
IMF meet in Tokyo to address anxiety about growth
by Staff Writers
Tokyo (AFP) Oct 10, 2012


Finding ways to boost the slowing global economy and helping poor nations fend off financial shocks will be on the agenda at meetings this week of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Tokyo.

Upwards of 15,000 people are expected to converge on the Japanese capital and the city's downtown Tokyo International Forum for a slew of conferences and symposiums.

While the event officially began on Tuesday, the gathering's highlight comes Friday at a plenary meeting with representatives from the Washington-based institutions' 188 member states.

IMF head Christine Lagarde and her World Bank counterpart Jim Yong Kim will air their views on the global economy, which the IMF warns is slowing markedly, and address issues such as stabilising volatile food prices.

The focus will be on "building resilience against crises and giving voices to developing countries", World Bank vice president Cyril Muller said.

Saturday sees a meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, the body that takes many of the operational decisions for the IMF, including its governance.

The Tokyo meetings were originally supposed to usher in governance reforms passed two years ago, amid calls from emerging nations for a greater say in the IMF's affairs.

However, the changes are on ice as the United States has yet to ratify the reforms with the US presidential election looming in November.

Holding the event in Japan, nearly 50 years after it last hosted the meetings in 1964, comes as the nation of 128 million moves past last year's quake-tsunami disaster and nuclear crisis.

It is a "good opportunity for us to show to the world the recovery of our country", said Tadehiko Nakao, vice finance minister for international affairs.

But a blistering spat between the hosts and China over disputed territory is threatening to cast a pall on the meeting, with the Chinese finance minister and central bank chief staying away.

Alongside the annual IMF-World Bank meetings, finance ministers from the G7 industrialised nations -- Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States -- meet on Thursday in Tokyo.

"We will focus very much on global growth prospects," said a senior US Treasury official.

Japan's new finance minister, Koriki Jojima, who has been in the job just over a week, said he may use the G7 to discuss the strength of the yen.

"The yen's recent one-way rise isn't reflective of Japan's economic fundamentals," Jojima said last week.

With the US Federal Reserve starting a third burst of monetary stimulus known as quantitative easing, other economies fear a repeat of the previous rounds when the dollar eroded in value to the detriment of their exporting firms.

The yen has risen around 50 percent in nominal terms against the dollar over the past five years, squeezing Japan's exporters, who are also having difficulty with the European debt crisis and the rift with China.

But Japan needs cover from fellow G7 nations if is to intervene in currency markets to weaken the yen.

The meetings, held outside the IMF and World Bank's US headquarters every three years, come against the backdrop of the simmering debt crisis in Europe, uncertainty about a US economic recovery and slowing growth in China.

On Tuesday, the IMF slashed its global growth forecast for this year to 3.3 percent, from a July estimate of 3.5 percent.

Growth will only hit 3.6 percent next year -- lower than the 3.9 percent predicted in July -- as even powerful emerging economies like China, India and Brazil hit the brakes, the Fund said.

But that assumption of marginally better growth in 2013 hinges on Europe's leaders getting on top of their crisis soon and US politicians averting a savage austerity plan dubbed the "fiscal cliff", the IMF said.

"Failure to act on either issue would make growth prospects far worse," it warned in its latest World Economic Outlook.

The World Bank, whose new chief was inaugurated in July, will meanwhile focus on ways to help poor countries "strengthen their resistance to natural disasters but also to economic shocks", Muller said.

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China finance chiefs to skip Japan IMF meetings
Tokyo (AFP) Oct 10, 2012 - Two of China's most senior finance officials will skip International Monetary Fund meetings in Japan, the Fund and a report said Wednesday, as Tokyo and Beijing remain locked in a diplomatic row.

The news is the latest indication that a spat over uninhabited, but possibly resource-rich, islands has spilled over from the political into the economic realm.

People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan, who had been due to deliver a lecture on Sunday, the centrepiece of the final day of the annual conference, will now send his deputy, the IMF said.

"We were informed two days ago that Governor Zhou's schedule might require him to cancel his lecture in Tokyo," a Fund spokesman said.

"It has now been confirmed that his deputy Yi Gang will represent him at the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings and will deliver his Per Jacobsson Lecture."

Finance Minister Xie Xuren has also pulled out of the meetings, Kyodo News said, citing an unnamed Chinese official.

China's state-run Xinhua news agency reported that the Chinese delegation to the IMF and World Bank meetings "will be led by Yi Gang, vice governor of the People's Bank of China, and Zhu Guangyao, vice minister of finance".

Its report Tuesday did not mention Zhou or Xie, but an official from the central bank confirmed that Zhou would not be in Tokyo.

"Yi Gang, the deputy governor went to Tokyo, but Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor didn't," he told AFP. When asked about possible reasons, he said: "Zhou has a tight schedule and he doesn't have time."

The pull-outs come as Tokyo and Beijing remain at loggerheads over the sovereignty of a Japan-administered island chain in the East China Sea that both countries claim.

The dispute, which has rumbled on for decades, flared in August and September with landings by nationalists from both sides and the subsequent nationalisation of the islands by Tokyo.

They also come after several private Chinese banks were reported to be limiting or cancelling their participation in events linked to the IMF and World Bank meetings, which began on Tuesday and will run until Sunday.

Japan's top government spokesman, Osamu Fujimura, told a regular news conference Tokyo was disappointed.

"The Tokyo meeting is an important meeting. We would very much regret it if the representatives of the authorities do not take part," he said.

"Since economic exchanges between Japan and China are important, our country will take a broader view and continue to try communicating with China."

The countries have a two-way trade relationship well in excess of $300 billion a year.

Sometimes-violent protests rocked Chinese cities in September in the wake of Tokyo's purchase of three of the islands, known as the Senkakus in Japan and the Diaoyus in China.

Japanese businesses and diplomatic missions were targeted by mobs, with some factories and shops shuttering their operations.

Firms with operations in China reported a tightening of customs regulations and difficulties in getting visas for foreign staff, in what commentators said was China's way of making its displeasure known.

Japan's top three automakers said Tuesday their sales in China plunged in September, with Toyota reporting they had shifted half as many vehicles as in the same month last year.

Toyota -- the world's largest car firm by sales in the first half of the year -- and Honda both said Tuesday they would continue "adjusting" production in China as reports said automakers plan to roughly halve output at their facilities there.

It was reported last week that big Japanese insurers have stopped covering firms against riots in China, in a move seen likely to hit investment in the country.



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POLITICAL ECONOMY
Mongolia's white-hot growth slows on China woes
Ulan Bator, Mongolia (AFP) Oct 10, 2012
Mongolia's white-hot economic growth has cooled this year as the ripple effects of the global economic downturn - and especially slowing Chinese growth - start to hit home. Resource-rich Mongolia defied the global economic gloom to notch stunning 17.3 percent GDP growth in 2011 on soaring coal shipments to its energy-hungry giant neighbour and a surge in foreign investment in its minerals ... read more


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