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POLITICAL ECONOMY
IMF trims China 2012 growth forecast to 7.8%
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) Oct 9, 2012

Top economies set for easing growth, except China: OECD
Paris (AFP) Oct 08, 2012 - The eurozone economy is slowing further, growth in the United States and Japan is moderating, but the outlook for soft growth in China might be improving, the OECD said on Monday.

The Organisaton for Economic Cooperation and Development said that on the basis of its index of leading indicators to the trend for growth, "most major economies will continue to see weakening growth in coming quarters."

The pointers indicated weakening growth in Germany, France, Italy and the eurozone as a whole, the OECD said.

The index for Britain and Brazil suggested that their economies were picking up.

The indicators for the United States and Japan "continue to show signs of moderating growth" and the indicators for Canada suggested "weak growth."

The OECD noted however that in China the indicators pointed to "soft growth, but tentative signs are emerging that the recent deterioration in the short-term outlook may have stabilised."

India and Russia seemed set for weak growth, the OECD said.


The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its forecast for Chinese economic growth for this year and next, saying stimulus efforts have so far failed to deliver an expected boost.

In its latest World Economic Outlook the Fund also said that the slowdown in the world's number-two economy had impacted other countries in the region.

The Chinese economy was expected to grow 7.8 percent in 2012 and 8.2 percent in 2013, the IMF said.

Both figures are below the Fund's most recent estimates in July of 8.0 percent growth for 2012 and 8.5 percent for 2013. The July forecasts were in turn lower than an IMF estimate in April.

China's gross domestic product expanded 7.6 percent in the second quarter of this year, its worst performance in three years, and disappointing data since then has led to fears that third-quarter growth may have weakened further.

Third-quarter data is due out on October 18.

China has suffered the knock-on effect of a severe debt crisis in Europe and a hobbled recovery in the United States, its two key export markets, which have led to a slump in trade and contraction in manufacturing activity.

Authorities have moved to spur the economy by slashing interest rates twice in quick succession this year and cutting the amount of funds that banks must keep in reserve three times since December in a bid to encourage lending.

China had earlier tightened monetary policy in 2010-2011 during a run-up in inflation.

"The tightening of monetary and credit policies has been partly reversed in 2012, as price pressures have eased and the residential real estate market has cooled," the IMF said.

"This easing, however, has not yet gained the traction expected earlier in the year."

The IMF in July had predicted that the economy would rebound in the second half of this year as the pro-growth policies took effect.

Some analysts have speculated that any plans for a more substantive stimulus package have been delayed due to a coming Communist Party congress that opens on November 8 and will unveil a new top leadership line-up for the next decade.

The ruling party generally avoids big and bold policy moves in the run-up to key political events.

In its latest report, the IMF said China's economy should improve in 2013 "as domestic demand growth, especially investment growth, picks up with the policy easing now under way".

The IMF's revised outlook for China's 2012 growth is higher than the 7.5 percent the Chinese government has forecast.

Both, however, underscore the substantial weakening China has experienced after expanding 9.3 percent in 2011 and 10.4 percent in 2010.

China's GDP stood at $7.5 trillion in 2011.

The country's economic woes have also had a negative impact on Asia, the IMF said.

"Slowing growth in China has affected activity in the rest of Asia, a consequence of the deepening of linkages throughout the region in the past decade."

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IMF cuts Japan growth forecast
Tokyo (AFP) Oct 9, 2012 - The International Monetary Fund Tuesday cut its forecast for Japan's growth this year and 2013, saying a slowdown in disaster reconstruction spending will weigh on the world's third-largest economy.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the Washington-based IMF projected that Japan's economy would grow 2.2 percent and 1.2 percent in 2012 and 2013, respectively, down from its July forecast of 2.4 percent and 1.5 percent.

Japan's economy shrank 0.7 percent in 2011 as it was hit by the March 11 quake-tsunami and resulting nuclear crisis, as well as heavy flooding in Thailand that hammered factory output for Japanese firms with plants there.

"Much of the recent strength is attributable to reconstruction activity and some rebound in manufacturing activity in the first half of the year following the supply shocks associated with the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami and the Thai floods in October 2011," the IMF report said.

"Earthquake-related spending has lent support to growth in 2012 but will decline sharply in 2013."

Japan's export-oriented economy has also been hit by a slump in orders from its major European market.

In a bid to address the problem Japan announced it was pledging $60.0 billion to the IMF as part of the organisation's bid to boost a global firewall against further eurozone debt crises.

However, an escalation in the eurozone's debt crisis could be magnified in Japan because the central bank's ultra-low interest rate policy largely rules out further cuts to stoke the economy.

The Bank of Japan's easing measures -- mainly through tweaking a now 80 trillion yen ($1.02 trillion) asset-purchase programme -- were "welcome and should help support economic growth and an exit from deflation", the IMF said.

"However, further easing of monetary policy may be needed to accelerate achievement of the Bank of Japan's inflation goal of 1.0 percent," it added.

The IMF also applauded a move earlier this year to double the nation's sales tax to 10 percent by 2015 as an "important step toward putting public debt on a sustainable trajectory".

But it warned that "further consolidation measures are needed to achieve this goal".

Japan is grappling with a debt standing at more than double gross domestic product, the highest ratio in the industrialised world, which is poised to grow as a rapidly ageing population turns to public pensions.



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