Idea of German 'draft lottery' sparks govt row

Idea of German 'draft lottery' sparks govt row
by AFP Staff Writers
Berlin (AFP) Oct 18, 2025

Germany is seeking to boost military recruitment to deter a hostile Russia, but a proposed "draft lottery" has sparked a row in the ruling coalition and unsettled many young people.

The flashpoint issue of bringing back any form of military conscription has rattled the government of Chancellor Friedrich Merz's conservative CDU/CSU bloc and the centre-left Social Democrats of Defence Minister Boris Pistorius.

Merz -- citing dangerous tensions between NATO and Russia and doubts about future US security commitment to Europe -- has pledged to build up the continent's "strongest conventional army" and tasked Pistorius with attracting new troops.

So far the Bundeswehr armed forces have banked on a volunteer drive, backed by a social media blitz to polish its image in a country whose dark history has left many citizens distrustful of all things military.

So Pistorius was not amused when the conservatives, several days ago, urged that the more coercive option of a possible "draft lottery" be included in legislation now taking shape in parliament.

The minister rejected the idea as a "lazy compromise", leading CDU lawmaker Norbert Roettgen to fume that Pistorius had "torpedoed an important bill".

Roettgen argued that including conscription provisions in the law now -- instead of putting off a decision into the future -- was an important matter of transparency.

But others, too, voiced concern that any suggestion of bringing back conscription, suspended since 2011, would only hamper the campaign to make Germans love their armed forces again.

A draft lottery suggests that someone "gets the short end of the stick", said Patrick Sensburg, who leads the Reservist Association of the Deutsche Bundeswehr, in comments to Politico.

- 'Like playing lottery' -

Many German citizens -- especially males around 18 and their parents -- have followed the debate with growing alarm.

"It's like playing the lottery, whether you're lucky or not," Stefan Brunnecke, a school director and father of two boys, told AFP.

"I don't think very much of that."

Leonhardt Roitsche, a 21-year-old student, said he felt politicians are making major decisions about the lives of young people without really taking their views into account.

"I understand that we need a capable military," he said. "But I don't think that a year of military service for 18-year-olds is necessarily the right solution."

Ginga Eischler, an 80-year-old pensioner, was far more outspoken in her criticism.

"I find it unbelievable that anyone could even come up with such an idea," she said.

"Young men are supposed to draw lots to decide whether they will be murdered or murder someone themselves? No, that's not acceptable. Not at all!"

- 40,000 recruits a year -

During the Cold War, which split Germany in two, large armies on both sides of the Iron Curtain relied heavily on conscription to fill the active ranks and create large military reserves.

In the years after the 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall, Germany scaled back its armed forces and troop numbers.

After it suspended conscription in 2011 under then-chancellor Angela Merkel, it opted instead for a smaller professional military geared for rapid foreign deployments instead of grinding wars of attrition.

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 upended the situation and has led Germany to massively step up defence spending.

Plans call for 40,000 new recruits each year by 2031, a far cry from the roughly 15,000 expected to enlist this year.

At the heart of Germany's plan now is to make service more attractive with higher pay and better benefits.

The new military service legislation championed by Pistorius already includes a return of mandatory fitness screenings for 18-year-old men from next year.

But the current draft law would require another vote in parliament before bringing back any form of compulsory military service.

- 'Massive infringement' -

Rafael Loss, a fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, views the debate over conscription as premature.

He said building up the infrastructure for selecting and training recruits would take years, and that rushing the effort could reduce combat readiness in the short term.

He also voiced concern that the draft lottery debate could "negatively taint the whole effort".

Patrick Keller of the German Council on Foreign Relations welcomed the current recruitment drive but also voiced doubts that it will be enough, given Germany's ageing population and tight labour market.

Keller said that mandatory service can "break down the gap between the military and society" by exposing people to life in the armed forces.

"I think it's good that we're having this debate and that we're openly talking about this issue," he said, "because compulsory service is always a massive infringement on the freedom of the individual."