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Is Facebook worth the bet? Doubts amid the frenzy
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) May 15, 2012


Everyone knows it is a giant of the Internet that will make money for a long while. But is Facebook worth investing in at its elevated initial public offering price?

Analysts have some doubts: the company has huge value, and could be very worthwhile over the long term. But there might be cheaper opportunities elsewhere on the market.

On the other hand, demand for Facebook shares is so strong that, fundamental valuations aside, an investor might score big in any case.

For one, there is last year's big social networking IPO, LinkedIn. Those who risked buying its shares at the seemingly expensive $45 issue price would have more than doubled their money by now.

Facebook is confident of the demand. On Tuesday pushed up the price of its IPO, expected to take place Friday, to $34-$38 a share, from the previously proposed $28-$35 range.

That is fairly high, by fundamental valuations, analysts say. At the current pace of growth, the company's price-earnings ratio would be more than 60 times this year's projected earnings and 40 times next year's.

That compares with an current Nasdaq average market p/e ratio of 19.7 times, and rival online ad giant Google's 18.5 times.

Moreover, the company's first quarter report showed slowing ad growth, rising costs, and the company was struggling to find ways to make money on customers who were using their smartphones more and more for their Facebook postings.

"It's really highly likely the company is overvalued... our fair value is $32," said Rick Summer of Morningstar.

The issue price has been driven by the sheer frenzy of demand, he said. "This is the one Internet company that people feel they have to get a piece of."

"Sometimes the expectations get ahead of the fundamentals," said the more bearish Trip Chowdhry of Global Equities Research.

"Revenue per user... is very low (and) Facebook doesn't have a strong mobile story," he said.

The issue, said Chowdhry, is whether one believes the huge long-term promise that Facebook will keep a lock on users and their personal data that advertisers so sorely want, to keep it shoulder to shoulder with better-established Google in the online ads business.

"Is it a fad or is it a trend?" Chowdhry asked. "The industry is not defined, the business model is not defined, the user behavior is not fixed."

Chowdhry says the company's financial performance might not justify the IPO price for several years. Revenues will grow quickly from online ads, but not earnings.

Facebook has to keep making huge investments -- in staff, technology, facilities, and strategic moves like the $1 billion takeover of photo-sharing service Instagram.

Yet longer term analysts are mostly bullish. They say Facebook's potential lies in its potential to increase its revenues very fast.

"If Facebook can actually have that reach into a billion users across the globe, that becomes an extremely valuable advertising platform," said Summer.

"Over the longer term we see Internet ad space is largely a two-headed monster": Google and Facebook.

The question for small investors, though, is whether Facebook's shares will perform. Against the example of LinkedIn are Zynga and Groupon, tech-industry IPOs of the past year which both are now trading well below their issue prices.

Virginie Lazes of Bryan Garnier & Co. says that even if the valuation is a little high, she expects the Facebook price will hold up.

Over one year, she said, "I think it could go up 5-10 percent. That is already good" for a company so large.

Given the choice, however, Summer said that Google looks like a better bet.

"The valuation differential is way too much" between Google and much younger Facebook.

Google's share price was at $611 Tuesday, and Morningstar has put a valuation on it of $780.

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GM to pull ads from Facebook: report
New York (AFP) May 15, 2012 - General Motors late Monday confirmed that it is pulling its advertising from Facebook because it determined paid ads had little impact on consumers.

GM had been spending about $10 million on paid advertising and $30 million on unpaid marketing on Facebook.

"We are reassessing our Facebook advertising, but we remain committed to very aggressive social media strategies and will continue to push content on Facebook through our product and brand Facebook pages," GM spokesman Patrick Morrissey told AFP.

The news comes at a bad time for Facebook, which is expected to launch an initial public stock offering Friday valuing the social networking site at around $100 billion.

GM's pullback comes as other marketers are questioning the value of paid ads on Facebook despite the vast amounts of time huge numbers of consumers spend on the site.

The US auto giant is the third largest advertiser in the United States with expenditures of $1.8 billion in 2011, according to Kantar Media.

It will continue to expand its use of unpaid marketing such as the creation and management of content on the Facebook pages of its brands and cars, according to Morrissey.

While Facebook and Google both have broad reach, ads posted at the search giant's websites are 10 times more likely to be clicked than those at the social network, according to online marketing specialty company WordStream.

WordStream gave Google top grades for performance of its display ad network while it found Facebook in need of improvement.

"So far, Facebook's advertising platform hasn't kept pace with the explosive growth of its social network, and it remains to be seen if CEO Mark Zuckerberg even wants to focus on advertising as a source of revenue," said WordStream chief technical officer Larry Kim.

"In his 2,500-plus word letter to (prospective) shareholders this month, he mentioned advertising just once."

Google offers twice as many advertising formats as Facebook, including ads in videos and mobile games, according to WordStream.

"The comparison suggests that Google currently offers advertisers more value in terms of both options and results for advertisers, and that Facebook has a lot of catching up to do," WordStream said.

Facebook has yet to support advertising on smartphones or tablet computers that have become popular social networking tools, and has more limited ad targeting options than Google, the analysis concluded.

"As good as Facebook has been at evolving to serve consumers, that's how bad it's been at serving marketers," Forrester analysts Nate Elliott and Melissa Parrish said in a blog post.

"Somehow Facebook still hasn't stumbled upon a model that's proven consistently successful for marketers, or that brings in the massive revenues to match the site's massive user base."

Facebook shortcomings at making money appeared not to be dousing passion for owning the company's stock.

Facebook on Tuesday raised the price range of shares to $34 to $38 in a move that could value it at more than $100 billion when it starts trading on the Nasdaq exchange.



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INTERNET SPACE
Facebook boosts IPO share price amid hot demand
New York (AFP) May 15, 2012
Amid signs of strong investor demand, Facebook on Tuesday boosted the share price estimate for its stock market debut, giving the leading social network a value that could top $100 billion. Facebook will price its initial public offering (IPO) between $34 to $38 per share, up from a range of $28 to $35, according to paperwork filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The rais ... read more


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