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MISSILE DEFENSE
Israel wraps up national SMS missile alert test
by Staff Writers
Jerusalem (AFP) Aug 16, 2012

Sinai "nest of terrorists" :Israeli military source
Kerem Shalom Crossing, Israel (AFP) Aug 16, 2012 - If Egypt fails to restore order in the Sinai peninsula it could come to resemble the Afghan mountain hideouts which sheltered the Taliban and their Al-Qaeda allies, an Israeli military source warned on Thursday.

Briefing foreign journalists at the site of an August 5 attack, where still-unidentified attackers burst through a border crossing into Israel after killing 16 Egyptian guards in the adjacent Sinai, he said that "thousands" of militants were holed up in the remote region where local Bedouin help them.

"There are nests of terrorists there, big nests," he said in Hebrew, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"Since the revolution in Egypt, since the fall of (President Hosni) Mubarak, there has been a significant deterioration," he said.

"Sinai has turned into an area which is out of control," he said. "The Bedouins who control the area... they make money from smuggling and helping terrorists."

Global jihad groups, he added, are looking for areas where there is a vacuum of central authority.

"Like in Afghanistan and elsewhere, they look for the absence of government, that way they can survive," he said. "If the Egyptians don't take things in hand now, that's what they'll get, them and us."

The Egyptian military has massed troops in the Sinai and pledged to restore order to the remote, and often inaccessible area, since the cross-border raid in which the attackers used an Egyptian armoured vehicle to take them across the frontier before they were halted by Israeli helicopter and tank fire.

The Israeli source said that the Bedouin did not share the religious and political commitment of the militants to whom they sell their support.

"They don't have the ideology to blow themselves up," he said. "They don't care if they kill Egyptians or Jews, what they care about is how much money goes into their Swiss bank account."

"The terrorists pay a lot of money, they don't know the territory, they don't know how to reach a certain spot without guides."

"The same people who are smuggling drugs are the same guides who get the terrorists through, but instead of getting 100,000 dollars (for an assignment) they get half a million dollars."


Israel on Thursday wound up nationwide testing of an SMS warning system against missile attack, sending texts to mobile phones in Jerusalem and other parts of the country, a military spokeswoman said.

The five-day exercise, which began on Sunday, took place to the backdrop of mounting speculation over a possible Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities and a resulting Iranian counter-attack.

The army said that along with Jerusalem, Thursday's test included the Negev desert town of Arad, the northern cities of Afula and Hadera, and Upper Nazareth, a Jewish satellite of the Israeli Arab city.

A spokeswoman said that Nazareth itself, the largest Arab city in Israel, was not included in the test, with military sources explaining that when the system became fully operational it would cover all communities.

The army says the warning messages were being sent in Hebrew, Arabic, English and Russian.

They are meant to warn of an imminent missile attack by Iran or Lebanon's Hezbollah militia, which could become a reality if Israel decides to mount a military strike on nuclear facilities in Iran.

Israel believes the Islamic republic is trying to develop a military nuclear capability under the guise of its civilian programme which it says would pose an existential threat to the Jewish state.

Opponents of an Israeli attack said on Thursday that around 500 academics and retired military personnel had signed a petition calling on air force pilots to refuse to carry out a unilateral strike.

"I understand the far-reaching implications of this petition," a statement quoted one of the signatories, Tel Aviv University law professor Menachem Mautner, as saying.

"The possibility of a decision to attack Iran has been keeping me awake for weeks."

The statement warns that injury to Iranian civilians as a result of radioactive leakage from any of the targeted facilities could expose pilots to future war crimes charges.

"We issue this appeal to you out of a deep sense of concern and anxiety," the petition tells the Israeli airmen. "Our fate, our very future lies very much in your hands."

On Thursday, President Shimon Peres said Israel could not attack Iran without US help, in a television interview for his 89th birthday.

"It is clear that we can not do it alone," he said. "We can repel (an attack) but it's clear to us that we must act in concert with America, even if there are some issues of coordination and delays."

And later in the evening around 100 protesters marched in Tel Aviv denouncing any strike on Iran, an AFP photographer said.

"Enough of occupation (of Palestinian territories). No to an attack on Iran," chanted the protesters, including members of the opposition Meretz and Hadash parties.

Many protesters held up pictures of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak with the caption "arsonists".

A poll, meanwhile, indicated that 61 percent of Jewish Israelis opposed a raid on Iran without US support.

The survey, published by the independent Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) think-tank, also said 57 percent of respondents believed talk of a pre-emptive strike is simply a tactic designed to pressure the Americans to take more resolute action against Iran.

"Most Jewish Israelis (56 percent) remain unconvinced that Israel will attack Iran without US cooperation in the near future," it added.

The IDI said the survey of 516 respondents was conducted by the Dahaf polling institute on August 7-8 and has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.

In recent weeks, the Israeli press has been flooded with reports citing anonymous top officials suggesting military action against Tehran's nuclear facilities is imminent.

But US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta on Tuesday said Israel had not yet reached a decision on whether to mount an attack.

US President Barack Obama has said Washington will stop Iran from "acquiring nuclear weapons" -- a step further down the line from Israel's red line, which says Tehran must not be allowed to acquire atomic weapons capability.

There is concern in Washington that a unilateral Israeli strike may not destroy Iran's underground nuclear facilities, could spark Iranian retaliation worldwide and may drag the United States into another war in the Middle East.

burs/hkb

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Iran war talk sends jitters through Israel economy
Jerusalem (AFP) Aug 16, 2012 - If Israel were to mount a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, some fear the ensuing conflict could deal a costly blow to the Jewish state's struggling economy, despite claims by bank officials.

Talk of an imminent strike has dominated the press in recent weeks, but the Israeli establishment has remained tight-lipped, with only Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer speaking publicly on the issue.

He insisted the central bank had contingency plans.

"One could imagine a situation of a wide-scale war with which it could be very difficult to deal," he said in a recent TV interview.

"We are ready to deal with the consequences of any event. We are prepared for all kinds of crises, we are prepared for a major crisis, for a far worse security situation," Fischer said, without elaborating.

"It's not my job to frighten anyone," he said, while pointing out that such a conflict would necessitate an increase in the defence budget.

"The main responsibility of any country is to ensure the security of the state and if there is a need to spend more money on national defence, we'll need to do that and to pay for it," Fischer said.

A central bank official told AFP that Israel had a "comfortable" foreign exchange reserve of $75.3 billion (61.28 billion euros).

"This gold mine should allow us to smoothly finance our imports in case of war and if necessary defend the shekel," he said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The Manufacturers Association of Israel, the umbrella organisation of Israeli industry, said the European economic downturn was a more immediate worry.

"Right now, business leaders are more concerned about the risks of recession caused by the Euro crisis," said Danny Catarivas, the Association's head of international relations.

He recalled that during the 2006 summer war between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah, the Shiite militia fired over 4,000 rockets into northern Israel, forcing one million Israelis to take refuge in bomb shelters or move south.

"The economy experienced a slight slump before rebounding with a better-than-expected year-end result," Catarivas said.

Local media, however, took a more pessimistic view, noting in particular that trade on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange had been very nervous lately.

Commentators warned that the shekel could be the "first victim of a war that has not yet begun," and said it was showing signs of weakness against the dollar and the euro.

An official at the Hoteliers' Association, meanwhile, said "the impact of rumours of an imminent war is beginning to be felt" in the tourism industry.

Military experts quoted by Israel's private Channel 10 TV have estimated that 50,000 rockets and missiles, fired either by Iran or Hezbollah, could fall in Israel.

And the cost of each day of war is estimated at $370 million (300 million euros) on the assumption that only half of the Israeli economy would be paralysed by such attacks.

Such an expense would force the treasury to slash civilian spending in order to boost the military's coffers, even though the defence budget, originally set at $13 billion this year, is set to rise to $15 billion even if no conflict erupts.

Last month the government began to put in place an austerity plan, which included a 1.0 percent increase in VAT and other measures that look set to affect the poorest sectors of society, to address a gaping budget deficit.

Tax revenues have fallen because of a slowdown in economic growth, which is expected to be 2.3 percent this year, compared with 4.7 percent in 2011, according to forecasts by Bank Hapoalim.



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MISSILE DEFENSE
Komorowski says Poland should have own missile shield
Warsaw (AFP) Aug 15, 2012
Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski said Wednesday that Poland should set up its own missile shield to defend its territory as part of the wider NATO project. "We need our own Polish shield which at the same time would be part of the larger NATO system," Komorowski said in a speech marking national army day. "It's a costly but tolerable project for the budget," because of Poland's econ ... read more


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