Published in Science Advances, the study highlights significant geographic differences in the climate benefits of solar power, showing where solar investments yield the most substantial emission reductions.
As of 2023, 60% of U.S. electricity was generated from fossil fuels, while only 3.9% came from solar, based on U.S. Energy Information Administration data. Since fossil fuel combustion is a major source of CO2 and fine particulate pollution, shifting to solar not only addresses climate change but also public health concerns.
The research team analyzed five years of hourly emissions, electricity generation, and demand data from 13 U.S. regions. Using this data, they developed a statistical model to estimate both immediate and delayed CO2 emission reductions resulting from increased solar energy deployment.
In California, for instance, a 15% increase in solar output at noon led to a reduction of 147.18 metric tons of CO2 in the first hour and 16.08 metric tons eight hours later.
"It was rewarding to see how advanced computational modeling can uncover not just the immediate, but also the delayed and far-reaching spillover effects of solar energy adoption," said lead author Arpita Biswas, assistant professor of computer science at Rutgers. "From a computer science perspective, this study demonstrates the power of harnessing large-scale, high-resolution energy data to generate actionable insights. For policymakers and investors, it offers a roadmap for targeting solar investments where emissions reductions are most impactful and where solar energy infrastructure can yield the highest returns."
The study found that regions such as California, Florida, Texas, the Southwest, Midwest, and mid-Atlantic could reap the greatest CO2 reductions from modest solar increases. In contrast, New England, central U.S., and Tennessee would see less impact, even with larger solar adoption.
Notably, solar adoption in one area can drive emissions reductions in others. A 15% solar increase in California, for example, was associated with daily reductions of 913 metric tons of CO2 in the Northwest and 1,942 metric tons in the Southwest.
"I am very excited about this study because it harnesses the power of data science to offer insights for policymakers and stakeholders in achieving CO2 reduction targets through increased solar generation," said Francesca Dominici, director of the Harvard Data Science Initiative and corresponding author.
Research Report:Quantifying Effects of Solar Power Adoption on CO2 Emissions Reduction
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