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THE STANS
NATO joint patrols with Afghans back to 'normal': US
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) Sept 27, 2012

US, Pakistan called off military talks due to protests: US
Washington (AFP) Sept 27, 2012 - A planned meeting between US and Pakistani military chiefs was postponed this week due to a wave of violent anti-American protests, the top-ranking US officer, General Martin Dempsey, said Thursday.

Dempsey revealed at a news conference that he had scheduled a discreet trip to Pakistan to meet chief of the army staff, General Ashfaq Kayani, but the two agreed to call off the talks amid unrest on the streets of Pakistani cities.

"I was originally planned to go to Pakistan to meet with General Kayani, and because of some of the issues related to that film, he and I discussed postponing that visit -- mostly so that I would give him the time to deal with the issues he was dealing with internally," said Dempsey, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Pakistan has been rocked by days of violent protests in its major cities as demonstrations have swept Muslim countries in the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia over an anti-Islam film, a crude production by American amateurs.

Instead, Dempsey said he extended an unannounced visit to Afghanistan, visiting the southern provinces of Kandahar and Helmand.

The general did not take reporters with him and his office made no public announcement about his Afghan trip.

Dempsey has adopted a lower profile than his media-friendly predecessor, Admiral Mike Mullen, who at times publicly diverged from the White House's stance on some issues.

Unlike the previous chairman, Dempsey has taken a number of overseas trips without any press documenting his visits, including a meeting of NATO officers in Romania last week.

The general denied that he had kept the trip under wraps because of any doubts about the war effort in Afghanistan, where a rise in insider attacks by Afghan forces has caused concern at the Pentagon.


NATO-led troops have resumed most joint operations with Afghan forces after commanders restricted patrols with their allies in Afghanistan due to a spike in insider attacks, US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said Thursday.

Last week, the International Security Assistance Force announced a scaling back of joint operations with its Afghan partners following a dramatic rise in so-called "green-on-blue" assaults, in which Afghan soldiers turn their weapons on their Western allies.

"I can now report to you that most ISAF units have returned to their normal partnered options at all levels," Panetta told a news conference.

But the Pentagon chief, who was joined by top US military officer General Martin Dempsey, could not provide details as to what percentage of joint operations had resumed.

Although the defense chiefs insisted the partnership was effectively back to normal, US military officers acknowledged that a new approval process that required two-star generals to endorse any joint patrols below the battalion level was still in place.

ISAF, responding to a mounting threat from insider assaults, had said on September 18 that joint patrols and other operations with Afghan troops would be carried out only at the battalion level and above, while activities with smaller units would have to be approved by two-star regional commanders.

The order has not been rescinded and the ISAF Joint Command "directive remains in effect," said Dempsey's spokesman, Colonel Dave Lapan. "Assessments continue."

Dempsey, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said he conferred with coalition commanders this week in an unannounced visit to Afghanistan and that joint operations had been restored for the most part.

"When I left Afghanistan, the leaders I had spoken to had resumed operations as they had been previously organized," Dempsey said.

Panetta vowed that the insider threat would not derail plans to transfer security to Afghan forces by the end of 2014, paving the way for the withdrawal of most NATO combat forces.

"We must and we will take whatever steps are necessary to protect our forces. But I also want to underscore that we remain fully committed to our strategy of transitioning to Afghan security control," he said.

The insider attacks pose a potential serious threat to the NATO war effort, which has portrayed the advising and training of Afghan forces as the key to the scheduled pullout of Western troops.

According to the Pentagon, 51 ISAF troops have been killed in 35 insider incidents this year, accounting for about 20 percent of all coalition casualties in the war.

Despite the rise in insider attacks, Panetta said the war against the Taliban was making headway and credited a US troop surge with turning the tide.

President Barack Obama ordered in 33,000 reinforcements in December 2009 and the last of the "surge" troops pulled out of Afghanistan last week, leaving 68,000 US boots on the ground -- part of a NATO-led force of roughly 112,000.

Arguing the surge was a success, Panetta said beforehand that "there was a real risk that the mission in Afghanistan might very well fail" and that the Taliban would take back power.

But he said the insurgency had been weakened and Afghan government forces strengthened.

"The Taliban's gains on the battlefield have been reversed. They've been unable to regain any of the territory that they've lost," he said.

The effect of the troop surge remains the subject of debate, with US officials saying the Taliban was rolled back in its spiritual heartland in the south.

The Pentagon cited figures showing insurgent attacks on NATO-led forces this year had decreased about five percent compared to 2011.

But the level of violence still exceeded that from the summer of 2009, before Obama opted to deploy additional troops, according to ISAF's website.

While the number of recorded attacks on ISAF troops are down from 2011, the statistics do not appear to take into account the expanded combat role of Afghan government forces, who have been dying at five times the rate of NATO troops.

Critics have accused NATO and the United States of painting an overly optimistic picture of the conflict and warned that Afghan security forces could disintegrate, with the country reverting to civil war once the coalition combat troops depart by 2015.

At the outset of the surge, senior commanders had suggested that the influx of US forces would drive the Taliban to peace negotiations, but so far overtures designed to encourage talks have produced no major progress.

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Taliban likely to regain power in Kabul: analyst
Kabul (AFP) Sept 27, 2012 - The Afghan government will collapse and Taliban insurgents are likely to retake power after the US and NATO pull their troops out in 2014, a respected international scholar has predicted.

The withdrawal of international forces will in some respects leave the country worse off than it was before a US-led invasion toppled the Taliban nearly 11 years ago, Afghan expert Gilles Dorronsoro of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said.

"In the end the withdrawal is the result of a failed strategy," he wrote in an analysis published this week.

Even US President Barack Obama's troop surge, which pumped an extra 33,000 soldiers into Afghanistan two years ago -- before they were withdrawn this month -- had failed, he said.

"After 2014, the level of US support for the Afghan regime will be limited and, after a new phase in the civil war, a Taliban victory will likely follow," Dorronsoro said.

His analysis contrasts strongly with forecasts by Western governments who are keen to get out of the long and costly war, and predict that Afghan forces will be able to take over the fight against the Taliban.

The US led the 2001 invasion to topple the Islamists for harbouring Al Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden after the 9/11 attacks, and has since said its aim was to ensure Afghanistan never again becomes a haven for international terrorists.

Dorronsoro, a former professor of political science at Sorbonne University in Paris and an Afghan specialist, foresees a Taliban advance beginning in the spring of 2013 as the West continues to draw down its troops.

In addition to the military threat, the Afghan government will confront an economic crisis sparked by the drop in Western spending and an institutional crisis as President Hamid Karzai's term ends in 2014, he says.

"The Afghan regime will most probably collapse in a few years," Dorronsoro wrote.

"Though negotiations with the Taliban are unlikely before the troops' withdrawal, the United States will not be able to pursue its longer-term interests in and around Afghanistan if it is not willing to deal with the Taliban.

"Poised to take power after the Afghan regime's likely collapse, only the Taliban can potentially control the Afghan border and expel transnational jihadists from Afghanistan."

In conclusion Dorronsoro said: "The desirable endgame should be a stabilisation of Afghanistan, probably with the Taliban in Kabul."

The bulk of NATO's 112,000 troops are due to leave by the end of 2014 and Afghan security forces, trained and equipped by foreign forces, will take charge of the country's security.



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THE STANS
Taliban likely to regain power in Kabul: analyst
Kabul (AFP) Sept 27, 2012
The Afghan government will collapse and Taliban insurgents are likely to retake power after the US and NATO pull their troops out in 2014, a respected international scholar has predicted. The withdrawal of international forces will in some respects leave the country worse off than it was before a US-led invasion toppled the Taliban nearly 11 years ago, Afghan expert Gilles Dorronsoro of the ... read more


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