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OPEC hikes 2012 world oil demand forecast
by Staff Writers
Vienna (AFP) May 10, 2012


OPEC revised its 2012 world oil demand outlook slightly upwards on Thursday citing a stable US economy and the shutdown of nuclear plants in Japan, which boosted demand.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries predicted 2012 demand at 88.67 million barrels per day (bpd), up 0.90 million bpd from 2011, in its latest monthly report.

This represented a minor hike from its previous estimate in April which stood at 88.64 million bpd.

"Given the stabilisation of the US economy and the shutdown of Japanese nuclear power plants, world oil demand growth has -- at least for the short-term -- stopped its declining trend and is showing some growth," OPEC said.

Demand outside the OECD developed countries was higher while those such as India and Saudi Arabia were consuming more than expected, it added.

However, Europe's economic worries continued to hurt demand, OPEC said, warning that high oil prices in the US could also have a dampening effect on the approaching summer driving season.

"The most important sector (in the US), transportation, continues to consume less oil than it did last year, due mainly to the country's economic activity and high retail prices," the report said.

With economic developments and fuel prices uncertain, "the outlook for US oil consumption for the entire year remains rather pessimistic," it added.

World oil demand could also be impacted by events in Japan, which switched off its last working reactor on Saturday amid a debate over whether the country should retain nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima disaster last year.

"Should Japan restart its nuclear plants, the country's high oil-usage would slow down dramatically," OPEC said.

The 12-member cartel, which accounts for about a third of global oil supply, pumped some 31.62 million bpd in April, up 0.32 million bpd from March, with members Iraq, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Angola hiking production.

Iran on the other hand saw output drop, OPEC said, citing secondary sources.

On Thursday, oil prices slipped as a sharper-than-expected US stockpile gain further spooked nervous investors already shaken by worries over the eurozone in the wake of French and Greek elections, analysts said.

New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in June, dipped 12 cents to $96.69 per barrel in the afternoon and Brent North Sea crude for June shed 39 cents to $112.81.

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Oil falls on weak Chinese data, OPEC supply rise
Singapore (AFP) May 11, 2012 - Oil prices fell in Asian trade Friday, weighed down by disappointing Chinese trade data and an increase in crude production by the OPEC cartel, analysts said.

New York's main contract, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in June, was down 94 cents to $96.14 per barrel while Brent North Sea crude for June shed 81 cents to $111.92 in morning trade.

"Weaker-than-expected Chinese trade data, higher OPEC production and evidence of a strengthening US jobs market muddied the oil demand outlook," said Phillip Futures in a market commentary.

Official customs data released Thursday showed imports in China -- the world's top energy consumer -- edged up just 0.3 percent year on year to $144.83 billion in April, raising questions about the government's ability to boost domestic demand.

China's exports to the debt-hit European Union grew a mere 0.3 percent from January to April, reflecting recent indications of a contraction in manufacturing activity.

China's weak trade performance could lead the government to loosen monetary policy to spur expansion and avoid missing annual growth targets, Phillip Futures said.

An increase in oil production by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also pressured prices, analysts said.

In its latest report, the 12-nation cartel said it pumped 31.62 million bpd (barrels per day) in April, up 0.32 million bpd from March, with Iraq, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Angola hiking production in a bid to stabilise prices.

Markets also remain shaken by worries about the eurozone after elections in Greece and France highlighted public rejection of austerity measures aimed at dealing with the eurozone debt crisis.

"The energy markets have been looking for some strong economic data within the European political upheaval but sadly it hasn't been forthcoming this week," said Justin Harper, market strategist at IG Markets Singapore.



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