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NUKEWARS
Outside View: Negotiating with Iran
by Ivan Sascha Sheehan
Baltimore (UPI) May 25, 2012

Iran still has to build 'confidence' in nuclear bid: Ban
United Nations (AFP) May 25, 2012 - UN leader Ban Ki-moon said Friday that Iran still has to build "international confidence" that its nuclear program is peaceful, as he welcomed a commitment to hold new talks.

Ban "strongly supports" efforts by Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States to seek a negotiated settlement with Iran on its nuclear drive, UN spokesman Martin Nesirky said about the latest negotiations between the two sides.

The UN secretary general "hopes that Iran will take the necessary measures to build and sustain international confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of its program," the spokesman added.

Western nations say Iran is seeking to develop a nuclear bomb. Iran says its drive is peaceful.

Two days of talks in Baghdad brought no apparent breakthrough but the two sides have agreed to meet again in Moscow on June 18-19.

"The secretary general is encouraged by the willingness of both sides to continue engaging in discussions to resolve the differences," Nesirky told reporters.

US official in Israel after Iran nuclear talks
Jerusalem (AFP) May 25, 2012 - The head of the US delegation to nuclear talks with Iran arrived in Israel on Friday to brief officials after a meeting in Baghdad that achieved little other than arranging more talks.

Wendy Sherman's visit is the latest in a series of meetings between US and Israeli officials over Iran's nuclear programme, which Tehran insists is peaceful but much of the international community suspects is a cover for attempts to obtain nuclear weapons.

US officials were coy about the purpose of her visit but it was clear that the aim was to brief officials in Israel, whose government is highly sceptical about whether diplomacy can prevent Iran obtaining the bomb, about the Baghdad talks.

The two-day meeting in the Iraqi capital saw huge differences emerge over dealing with the key issues in a decade-old standoff over Tehran's programme, with the sole tangible outcome being plans to meet again in Moscow on June 18-19.

The government of Israel, the only if undeclared atomic power in the Middle East, sees the country's very existence under threat if its arch foe goes nuclear. Like Washington, it has refused to rule out bombing Iranian nuclear sites.

The US State Department said in a statement that the visit was for "consultations on bilateral and regional issues with senior officials and to reaffirm our unshakeable commitment to Israel's security."

"She has arrived," said US embassy spokesman Kurt Hoyer. "I'm not 100 percent sure what her schedule is," he added, when asked whom Sherman would be meeting while in the country.

Israeli public radio however said Sherman was to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to report on the Baghdad talks, at which world powers noted "significant differences" with Iran but agreed to meet again in Moscow next month.

Israel sees itself as Tehran's number-one target if Iran acquires the bomb and is highly sceptical that diplomacy will work.

Later on Friday, the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna was expected to circulate a report detailing Iran's latest advances in expanding its nuclear activities.


This week, six world powers resumed discussions with Iran in Baghdad to avert what increasingly appears to be a nuclear standoff. What the Obama administration hopes to achieve through such talks is anybody's guess. History suggests that diplomatic engagement with Iran is a fool's errand.

Preliminary talks in Istanbul last month were generally received with cautious optimism and claims of modest progress. Whether such optimism was warranted, however, is questionable at best. Few concrete steps were realized and a timetable for inspections of Iran's nuclear facilities was not achieved.

As the great powers emerge from the second round of talks in Baghdad, Western officials will again downplay prospects for an immediate breakthrough. Negotiation will be deemed a long process. Optimistic claims of progress resulting from trivial concessions will be framed as political victories. And, not surprisingly, Iranian officials will herald the talks as fruitful and call for continued cooperation.

The result: the stage will be set for more broken promises and Iranian influence will grow in a region readying itself for the inevitable power vacuum created by a smaller U.S. footprint. This is a troubling legacy for a U.S. president faced with the prospect of a single term and heading into an election year.

Regrettably, the ongoing direct talks, viewed by some as negotiations, haven't been treated as such. The Obama administration's unwillingness to forcefully leverage hard and soft power to address the Iran problem underscores a combination of naivete, unwillingness to face the threat posed by Tehran, and a troubling sense that international conflict makes for bad electoral politics. As the talks drag on, Iran's mullahs buy precious time to pursue their ultimate goal of a nuclear arsenal and the world is held hostage to the posturing of a rogue regime with a long history of promoting instability and fueling proxy violence.

Before any future talks with Iran are scheduled, administration officials would be wise to take several immediate steps to ensure that U.S. security interests are protected:

1) The United States should signal Iran that if negotiations fail to achieve substantive ends, the United States or other world powers may choose to act with force to curtail Tehran's nuclear plans. As a key ally, Israel should be readied for the likelihood of a tactical strike to diminish Iran's growing nuclear program.

To date, U.S. officials have provided no public indications to Israel that such activities are imminent or assurances that preemptive activity by Israel would be met with support -- material, political or otherwise. Enhanced covert action to frustrate and set back Iran's efforts should also be put squarely on the table and the necessity of such activity should be contextualized as a potential necessity with significant consequences for U.S.-Iran relations.

2) The prominent and well-organized Iranian dissident organization in exile, People's Mujahedin of Iran, should be formally removed from the U.S. Department of State's Foreign Terrorist Organization list and recast as a political alternative to the theocratic rule in Tehran. The existing placement on the list curtails the group's ability to raise funds, maintain a lobby and receive virtually any type of assistance or support. The label also broadcasts an illegitimacy that serves as a scarlet letter and undermines the social mobilization necessary for resistance. Correcting the list to reflect existing realities in the Middle East makes clear that instability and violence promoted by the Iranian government will be checked with support for a grassroots movement that can challenge its authority.

3) U.S. officials should demand that the International Atomic Energy Agency be given unfettered access to Iran's so-called "peaceful" nuclear program and that Tehran furnish evidence of its halting of uranium to weapons-grade levels. A timetable for removal of all existing uranium enriched to 20 percent purity should also be formalized.

4) U.S. officials should ramp up political and economic sanctions and build support among world powers to do the same. Over the past year, economic sanctions have taken a toll inside Iran and Iranians are increasingly holding their government accountable. A European oil embargo that will take effect this summer is a necessary means of further ripening the negotiating environment, exploiting Iran's ongoing troubles and ensuring future compliance with negotiated concessions.

Iran's well-earned reputation for being masters of diplomatic sleight of hand, as well as their long history of accepting U.S. olive branches while working against U.S. interests, should be taken into consideration by U.S. negotiators. Tehran's sophisticated use of threat and accommodation to ensure its own political interests must be seen for what it is. The recognition that, as some credible voices suggest, no package of concessions or incentives will dissuade Iran from its current course must also be considered.

The window for diplomatic action is closing and current talks in Istanbul and Baghdad have left unresolved key issues. Iranian sincerity in continued discussions must be checked with calls for concrete action. The time has come for the Obama administration to make clear that confidence-building measures and dialogue as a tactic for the continued pursuit of nuclear weapons will be challenged through other methods of conflict management that don't involve discussion.

The primary fountainhead of terror in the modern world cannot be allowed to hold the world hostage by raising hopes and dashing expectations only to buy time to engage in the illicit pursuit of a nuclear stockpile. If negotiations are to be used to buy time and build trust for the pursuit of weapons to destabilize the region, the world needs to acknowledge this and act accordingly.

(Ivan Sascha Sheehan is the director of the Negotiation and Conflict Management Program in the School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Baltimore. The opinions expressed are entirely his own.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

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Russia says Iran talks on track despite differences
Moscow (AFP) May 25, 2012 - Russia on Friday called the latest round of talks on the Iranian nuclear standoff "constructive" despite big differences that remain as the parties head for more negotiations in Moscow next month.

However, Russia outlined no new initiatives that could be discussed following a bruising session in Baghdad that ended with Iran declaring its "absolute right" to enrich uranium despite fears it was actually building a nuclear bomb.

"The round was held in a constructive and business-like atmosphere despite the significant differences in approaches that remain," the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement.

Iran and the six big world powers held what negotiators called open and intense talks that produced no breakthroughs and almost ended with Iran walking away in fury at Western offers on the table.

But the parties did salvage an agreement to meet again in Moscow on June 18-19 as the July 1 deadline for the enforcement of an EU embargo on Iranian oil looms.

Russia said world powers offered Iran a set of "concrete proposals" in Baghdad concerning its controversial enrichment of uranium to 20 percent.

Moscow's statement did not specify what the offer included amid reports that it concerned providing Tehran better access to aviation parts and agricultural assistance but not the lifting of UN Security Council and unilateral sanctions.

The six world powers "also designated specific initiatives that provide positive incentives for Iran as a reciprocal measure," the Russian statement said.

The wording suggested these sweeteners would be delivered to Iran only after it took the initial step of halting its controversial enrichment programme and shipping the fuel already produced abroad.

"For its part, Iran declared its readiness to hold further discussions about the 20-percent enrichment issue, together with the discussion of an entire range of other issues of interest to Tehran, including the recognition of its right to enrich (uranium)," the Russian statement said.

Moscow has promoted a "step-by-step" solution to the crisis that involves gradually lifting four rounds of UN Security Council sanctions against its trading partner in exchange for Tehran's cooperation over its nuclear programme.

It outlined the initiative to Iran's visiting foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi in Moscow in August and has since promoted it with sceptical officials in Washington.

But Iran has yet to formally accept the Russian formula and insisted that unilateral and UN sanctions be lifted before it makes any concessions on its part.

Moscow's statement said Russian negotiator Sergei Ryabkov held separate talks in Baghdad with his Chinese and Iranian counterparts in an attempt to find common ground.

Both Russia and China have condemned the EU oil embargo and been far more supportive of Iran than the United States or the European team comprised of Britain and France along with Germany.

Russia has defended its close military and trade ties with Iran as well as its decision to construct the Islamic state's first nuclear power plant.

But it has also been more critical of Tehran's behaviour in the past year and decided to shelve the deal to sell its advanced warhead system to Iran that was opposed by the United States and Israel.

The Moscow statement said world powers were still seeking to "completely restore trust" in Iran's nuclear work.



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NUKEWARS
Tick tock: Pressure for real progress in next Iran talks
Baghdad (AFP) May 25, 2012
Iran and world powers cannot afford to come away from their next round of nuclear talks in Moscow in June without concrete progress, as they did in Baghdad, analysts said on Friday. "We are starting to reach a point in which it is going to be more difficult to keep this process alive without having some tangible results on the substantive issues," said Trita Parsi, author of a recent book ab ... read more


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