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POLITICAL ECONOMY
Outside View: U.S. economy stalls
by Peter Morici
College Park, Md. (UPI) Sep 2, 2011

disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes only

The U.S. economy added no jobs in August. The unemployment rate stayed constant at 9.1 percent only because so many adults are too discouraged to look for work.

Retail, manufacturing, information services and construction all lost jobs indicating the fragile recovery is faltering. Finance posted small gains.

Government employment fell by 17,000 and private sector jobs added 17,000.

The economy is growing so slowly that employment should have fallen but worker productivity is dropping precipitously -- an ominous sign of future nominal as well as real wage declines.

Government subsidized private employment in social services and healthcare gained 36,000 jobs; otherwise, the private sector contracted.

Jobs creation will remain inadequate to keep unemployment from falling in the months ahead, especially considering the mass layoffs recently announced in banking and pharmaceuticals that will be effected in the months ahead.

The unemployment rate stayed constant at 9.1 percent despite the fact that at least 130,000 jobs are needed each to keep up with growth in the adult population. Many adults quit looking for work and weren't counted among the unemployed.

Factoring in those discouraged adults, and others working part time for lack of full-time opportunities, the unemployment rate is about 16 percent. Adding college graduates in low-skill positions, like counterwork at Starbucks, and the unemployment rate is closer to 20 percent.

The economy must add 13.7 million jobs over the next three years -- 381,000 each month -- to bring unemployment down to 6 percent. Considering continuing layoffs at state and local governments and federal spending cuts, private sector jobs must increase at least 405,000 a month to accomplish that goal.

Growth in the range of 4-5 percent is needed to get unemployment down to 6 percent over the next several years. Recent gross domestic product data put first half growth at less than 1 percent.

Jobs creation remains weak, because temporary tax cuts, stimulus spending, large federal deficits, expensive and ineffective business regulations and increased healthcare mandates and costs don't address structural problems holding back dynamic growth and jobs creation -- the huge trade deficit and dysfunctional energy policies.

Oil and trade with China account for nearly the entire $600 billion trade deficit. This deficit is a tax on domestic demand that erases the benefits of tax cuts and stimulus spending.

Simply, dollars sent aboard to purchase oil and consumer goods from China, that don't return to purchase U.S. exports, are lost purchasing power. Consequently, the U.S. economy is expanding at less than 1 percent a year instead of the 5 percent pace that is possible after emerging from a deep recession and with such high unemployment.

Without prompt efforts to produce more domestic oil, redress the trade imbalance with China, relax burdensome business regulations and curb healthcare mandates and costs, the U.S. economy cannot grow and create enough jobs.

(Peter Morici is a professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland School, and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

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Chinese growth machine waning: World Bank chief
Washington, Usa (AFP) Sept 1, 2011 - The sources of China's stunning economic growth over the past 30 years are beginning to lose their punch, highlighting the need for reforms, World Bank President Robert Zoellick said Thursday.

If China is to continue to grow strongly, it can no longer rely simply on soaring exports and investment, Zoellick said, but must rebalance through greater domestic consumption.

"The drivers of China's meteoric rise are waning," Zoellick said in an article published on the World Bank's website and to be printed in the Financial Times on Friday.

"By 2030, if China reaches a per capita income of $16,000 -- a reasonable possibility -- the effect on the world economy would be equivalent to adding 15 of today's South Koreas," he said.

"It is hard to see how that expansion could be accommodated within an export and investment-led growth model."

Without fundamental changes, Zoellick said, China will only exacerbate the problems of the world's economy and its own: greater imbalances, higher food and resource prices, more environmental damage, difficulty supporting an aging population, and over-reliance on foreign markets.

Writing on the eve of a high-level meeting in Beijing by Chinese and foreign experts, Zoellick said Beijing's policymakers are well aware of what they need to do.

"The challenge is 'how' to do it," he wrote.

"A critical question is how China can complete its transition to a market economy. A broad agenda needs to include redefining the role of the government and the rule of law, expanding the private sector, promoting competition, and deepening reforms in the land, labor, and financial markets," Zoellick said.

He called on Beijing to promote green industries, strengthen its fiscal system, and build better and more efficient public services, with the private sector taking part.

Zoellick noted that China's strengths have been crucial in helping the world stabilize in crisis, but that its growth model is unsustainable.

"What happens in China is as important as Europe, Japan, or the United States," he reminded.





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POLITICAL ECONOMY
Chinese growth machine waning: World Bank chief
Washington, Usa (AFP) Sept 1, 2011
The sources of China's stunning economic growth over the past 30 years are beginning to lose their punch, highlighting the need for reforms, World Bank President Robert Zoellick said Thursday. If China is to continue to grow strongly, it can no longer rely simply on soaring exports and investment, Zoellick said, but must rebalance through greater domestic consumption. "The drivers of Chi ... read more


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