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Republican election gains likely to embolden Israeli PM

Netanyahu to fly to US for talks on peace
Jerusalem (AFP) Oct 31, 2010 - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday he will fly to the United States next weekend for talks on Middle East peace efforts and to speak of the need to combat international terrorism. "Next Sunday, I shall leave for the annual assembly of Jewish communities in the United States," Netanyahu told reporters at the start of the weekly cabinet meeting, referring to a congress to be held in New Orleans on November 7-9. "I shall meet there with Vice President (Joe) Biden and other senior administration officials and I shall discuss with them a range of issues, including, of course, a renewal of the peace process with the aim of reaching an agreement on peace with security for the state of Israel," he said. But Netanyahu will not be meeting US President Barack Obama, who will be travelling in Asia at the time.

Israel and the Palestinians resumed direct peace negotiations on September 2, after a 20-month hiatus. But within weeks the talks ran aground following the expiry of a 10-month Israeli moratorium on the building of Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank. Netanyahu has steadfastly refused to reimpose the ban, while Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas has declined to talk while Israel builds on land he wants for a future state, prompting intense US efforts to resolve the deadlock. The Israeli premier's trip to the United States is to take place just days after Tuesday's midterm elections, whose outcome is likely to have a bearing on the Obama administration's engagement in the Middle East peace process. Netanyahu said that the annual general assembly of US Jewish groups takes place this year in the shadow of apparent attempts to send bombs to Jewish targets in Chicago.

Chicago synagogues were warned to be on the alert after suspicious packages were found on two US-bound cargo planes during stopovers in Britain and Dubai, the city's Jewish Federation has said. Obama was told late Thursday of a "potential terrorist threat" from suspicious packages from Yemen on two cargo planes, one in Britain and the other in Dubai, the White House said. "The assembly takes place this time with the background of reports of an attempted attack on the Jewish community of Chicago," Netanyahu said. "It really doesn't matter if the target is a synagogue in Chicago, a railway station in Madrid or London, or Mumbai or Bali," he added. "We stand facing a growing wave of Islamic extremist terror." "Among the issues I shall speak about at this assembly are the steps that need to be taken by the civilised world, the free world, in order to stop this wave which threatens us all.
by Staff Writers
Jerusalem (AFP) Oct 31, 2010
A weakening of US President Barack Obama's Democrats in this week's Congressional elections would make Israel more resistant to demands for a new freeze on Jewish settlement, analysts say.

With peace talks on hold over a dispute about settlements, Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas is relying on Washington to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into halting construction in the occupied West Bank before he will return to the table.

Netanyahu said on Sunday that he would fly to the United States on November 7 to address an assembly of Jewish groups and would meet Vice President Joe Biden for talks on "renewal of the peace process with the aim of reaching an agreement on peace with security for the state of Israel."

He will not meet Obama, who will be travelling in Asia at the time.

The outcome of Tuesday's midterm vote, which is expected to see the Democrats emerge weakened, is seen as likely to harden Israel's negotiating position.

"Netanyahu would assess that a more Republican, or less Democratic Congress, might mean more unquestioning friends of Israel who are not likely to put heavy pressure, and are more likely to give knee-jerk support on all kinds of other issues," strategic analyst Yossi Alpher told AFP.

A weakening of the Democrats could encourage Netanyahu to dig in his heels, he said.

"Republican achievement ... might therefore somehow improve Netanyahu's negotiating flexibility, so he would be stalling until then," he said. "The closer you get to elections, the more that makes sense."

In an op-ed in the Jerusalem Post this week, US political gurus Stanley B. Greenberg and James Carville wrote that one of their recent surveys showed Republicans to be no more popular than Democrats at the moment.

Nevertheless, the pair, who coached Bill Clinton, Britain's Tony Blair and Israel's Ehud Barak in successful election campaigns, said: "It is hard to imagine that November 2 will be a good day for Democrats."

Jonathan Spyer, research fellow in international relations at the Interdisciplinary Centre near Tel Aviv, said Netanyahu and Abbas would each be waiting for the US election result, before showing his next hand.

"I think everybody expects that the Democrats will take significant losses and will be interested to see what the administration then chooses to do," Spyer said.

"The next move will be by the administration itself, following the midterm, and on the basis of what that move is the (two) sides will begin to shift their positions accordingly."

Palestine Liberation Organisation official Hanan Ashrawi said Obama had already been so soft on Israel that it was hard to see elections making a substantial difference.

"It's going to be very difficult to see how the US administration can back off even more than it has so far," she said.

"It's going to be very difficult to see any administration that is going to be so conciliatory and willing to accept all Israeli positions the way they have done so far."

Israel and the Palestinians began direct peace negotiations at the start of September but within weeks the talks ran aground after the expiry of a 10-month moratorium on settlement building.

Netanyahu faces stiff opposition to a fresh freeze within his right-wing coalition government and has so far refused to reimpose the ban.

Abbas is shunning talks as long as Israel continues to build on Palestinian land he wants for a future state, prompting intense US efforts to resolve the deadlock.

Arab League ministers, meeting in Libya on October 8, backed Abbas's position but gave Washington one month to extract Israeli concessions and said it would review the situation then, just after the midterm results are in.

Former Israeli premier Ariel Sharon, who was a regular visitor to Washington, made no secret of how important he considered Congress to be, holding frequent conference calls with key members.

While the White House set policy, he used to tell aides, Congress controlled the funds for turning policy into deeds.

Raanan Gissin, a former Sharon advisor, said the fragility of the US economy gives Congress, with its control of the purse strings, more clout than in the past.

"This time Congress plays, I would say, a much more significant role, if only because of the fact that the dollar is weak," he said. "Therefore Congress can play a much more effective role.

"But when it comes to the actual executive decisions and moves that the president can take vis-a-vis Israel, he's still the guy who rides the horse; he's still the guy in the saddle."



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