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Russia's central bank frets over oil price and sanctions pressure
by Daniel J. Graeber
Moscow (UPI) Nov 13, 2015


Oil prices fall 4 percent on news of oversupply
New York (UPI) Nov 13, 2015 - Crude oil prices fell nearly 4 percent after the release of a report showing stockpiles of crude oil continued to build in the U.S. market, even though a U.S. government report showed declining production from most shale basins.

Brent crude oil fell below $45 a barrel for the first time since August.

The International Energy Agency published its monthly report for November on Friday, forecasting the global demand for oil in 2016 will slow to 1.2 million barrels per day after hitting a five-year peak this year at 1.8 million bpd. Output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, meanwhile, has been relatively unchanged since October, while shale oil production in the United States is expected to fall.

On the demand side, IEA said commercial inventories continued to build despite static and falling crude oil production.

"The pace of global stock-building slowed during the third quarter to 1.6 million bpd from 2.3 million bpd in the second quarter, but remained significantly above the historical average," it said.

Oil prices were mixed in early Friday trading. Brent crude oil gained about 0.8 percent from Thursday's massive retreat to start the day at $44.42 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark price for crude oil, lost 0.6 percent to $41.50 per barrel.

In its short-term market report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said it expected the balance between supply and demand to move closer to equilibrium starting in 2016.

EIA expects that Brent crude oil prices will average $54 per barrel and WTI will average $50 per barrel for full-year 2015. Brent for next year increases in value by 3.7 percent, while WTI gains 2 percent.

Lower crude oil prices and restricted access to foreign capital markets means dwindling funds for Russia, the country's central bank chief said.

Elvira Nabiullina, the head of the Russian Central Bank, said Friday the general bank portfolio quality in Russia was diminishing under the strains on the economy. Lending is moving in some sectors, though the share of overdue loans on the books is increasing across the board.

The bank in September said it was keeping its key interest rate at 11 percent because of the risks of high inflation and "persistent" cooling in the Russian economy. Lower crude oil prices hurt exporting economies like Russia's and, last week, Nabiullina said there may be a prolonged downturn ahead.

On Friday, the bank's chief said sanctions that restrict Russian access to foreign markets and pressure from lower crude oil prices meant reductions in currency funds.

"The decline of oil prices together with restriction of the access of Russian banks to foreign borrowings leads to reduction of currency funds," she was quoted by state news agency ITAR-Tass as saying. "According to our estimate, the flow of funds decreases by about $200 billion in annual terms."

Inflation is still running in the double digits, she said, but should show signs of recovery by next year.

Russian finance officials said Friday they started a review of a draft budget for 2016 that has annual inflation at 6.4 percent, gross domestic product growth at 0.7 percent and oil priced at $50 a barrel.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said in October that the economy has reached the "peak of the crisis" and that policymakers were adapting to new economic circumstances.

Lawmakers said they're working on drafting a one-year budget, delaying considerations beyond 2017.


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