Multiple EU diplomats and officials told AFP the signs are positive that a security agreement will be inked when British Prime Minister Keir Starmer meets EU chiefs in London on May 19.
The "security and defence partnership" is billed as an important first step in Starmer's much-vaunted push to reset ties after the years of bad blood caused by the UK leaving the bloc.
The move is aimed at opening the door to closer cooperation as both the EU and Britain race to rearm in the face of the menace from Russia and fears Trump will no longer help protect Europe.
That should mean more regular security talks, Britain considering joining EU military missions and the potential for London to fully tap into a 150-billion-euro defence fund being set up by the bloc.
But the deal is expected to leave much of the detail to be filled in later -- for instance requiring a further agreement on giving the UK and its defence industry unfettered access to the EU programmes.
"It is a pre-condition for more serious stuff," said one EU diplomat, talking like others on condition of anonymity to discuss internal discussions.
- 'Lots can still happen' -
Diplomats said fears had subsided that a dispute over prolonging access to British waters for EU fishermen could derail talks as both sides are keen to improve relations amid the global turmoil unleashed by Trump.
"At this stage I'd say the odds are quite positive," said a second EU diplomat. "But all the different files are linked, so lots can still happen between now and the 19th."
The defence deal is expected to be signed alongside two other documents: one setting out a shared vision on global issues and another on the list of thorny subjects both sides hope to make progress on, including customs checks, energy links and a youth mobility scheme.
The drafts are set to be debated by EU ambassadors in Brussels on Wednesday and need to be signed off by all 27 before they can be forwarded to the British for final approval.
London and Brussels are treading carefully as closer cooperation with the EU remains a politically divisive issue for Starmer who faces a growing challenge from diehard eurosceptics Reform UK.
Reaching the security pact was long seen as the lowest hanging fruit for negotiators given that Britain already has intertwined defence ties with 23 EU countries in NATO.
Those bonds have only tightened as Trump has rattled Europe by pushing for a quick end to the war in Ukraine.
Britain has teamed up with France to spearhead plans for possibly deploying troops to Ukraine in the event of any deal.
In the latest sign of the closer relationship, British foreign minister David Lammy will meet his EU counterparts for talks in Warsaw on Wednesday.
London said Lammy would "make the case for a long-term UK-EU strategic partnership that will support economic growth, protect citizens, and support European collective security and defence".
"We are working hand-in-hand with our European allies to build a safer, more secure, and more prosperous Europe," Lammy said in a statement.
"Together, we will stand firm against aggression, defend our shared values, and deliver lasting peace. "
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