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WAR REPORT
US aims for psychological effect with strikes on Syria:experts
by Staff Writers
Washington, District Of Columbia (AFP) Sept 04, 2013


Russian ships 'able to react' in case of Syria escalation
Moscow (AFP) Sept 04, 2013 - Russian naval vessels in the Mediterranean are capable of reacting to an escalation in the Syria conflict, a military source said Wednesday, as Moscow fine tunes its maritime presence ahead of possible US military action.

"Today we consider our presence in the eastern Mediterranean to be sufficient to solve the tasks. If necessary, together with submarine forces, they (the ships) are capable even today of influencing a military situation," a general staff source told the Interfax news agency.

"We are ready to solve sudden task. For that, the naval group is being corrected for the corresponding variants of the outcome of events," the source added, without giving further details.

According to Interfax, the Russian destroyer Smetlivy will soon join the group in the Mediterranean as well as the destroyer Nastoichivy.

The anti-submarine ship Admiral Panteleyev has already entered its zone of operation as the flagship of the current rotation of the naval grouping in the Mediterranean, a military source told the agency.

The missile cruiser Moskva, from the Black Sea fleet, has now left its assignment in the northern Atlantic and is now on its way to the eastern Mediterranean.

On arrival it will assume the role as the Russian flagship, Interfax said.

Already in place in the eastern Mediterranean are the frigate Neustrashimy, as well as the landing ships Alexander Shabalin, the Admiral Nevelsky and the Peresvet.

They will be joined by the large landing ships Novocherkassk and Minsk on September 5-6, Interfax said. As previously reported, the reconnaissance ship Priazovye is also on its way to join the group.

The US already has a strong naval presence in the region and the possible US military action launched against Syria is widely expected to be launched from the sea.

Russia has kept a constant presence in the eastern Mediterranean during the Syrian crisis, rotating its group every few months.

Russia also has a naval base in the Syrian port of Tartus, an heirloom from Moscow's close relationship with Damascus under the Soviet Union.

According to Russian media reports, Russian naval personnel have largely now been withdrawn from the base, a modest but hugely strategic facility which Moscow calls a "point of military-technical supply of the Russian Navy."

Moscow vehemently opposes US-led plans for military action against the regime of Bashar al-Assad in response to an alleged chemical attack outside Damascus, warning it risks destabilising the entire region.

Limited military strikes against Syria favored by President Barack Obama may have a psychological effect but little practical impact on the Damascus regime's firepower, experts said Wednesday.

Vowing to avoid large-scale, open-ended action, Obama has proposed a "shot across the bow" in a bid to punish President Bashar al-Assad for allegedly resorting to chemical weapons.

"In a shot across the bow, you don't hit anything. It's a demonstration of resolve," said Michael Eisenstadt, a former US military adviser.

"If that's the way he sees it, then it really doesn't matter whether it's 50 or 100 (Tomahawk missiles)," he said. "It's just the very fact that you're doing it, that that should be enough."

The Obama administration is believed to be contemplating a series of cruise missile strikes that would likely hit command posts, airfields and units linked to chemical attacks.

The Pentagon says the goal of punitive strikes would be to "deter" Assad from using chemical weapons again and "degrade" his army's ability to launch the lethal agents.

But even after a wave of missile strikes launched from warships and possibly from B-2 bombers, Assad's forces would still have artillery capable of unleashing lethal sarin gas or other chemical agents, analysts said.

"If we really wanted a military effect, what we could do is deprive the Assad regime of its most efficient delivery mechanism (for chemical weapons) -- artillery," said Jeffrey Martini, a Middle East analyst at the RAND Corporation think tank.

"That operation would look a lot different from the one that it seems the administration in envisioning," he told AFP.

The military action that Congress is now debating appears to be about "psychological" effects and not "military effectiveness," he said.

Leaks and a political debate in Washington over the merits of intervention has removed any element of surprise, allowing the Syrian regime time to disperse troops and equipment that could be targeted in any action, experts said.

"That clearly makes it more difficult to accomplish a certain minimal amount of damage on the Syrians," said Eisenstadt, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

The US military's top officer, General Martin Dempsey, told lawmakers Tuesday there was no doubt American forces would inflict damage on Syria's chemical weapons capacity and would be using an extensive list of targets.

"I'm confident in the capabilities we can bring to bear to deter and degrade," said Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

"And it won't surprise you to know that we will have not only an initial target set but subsequent target sets should they become necessary," said the four-star general, implying the operation could last beyond a single day.

The administration hopes to "alter Assad's calculus," said Steven Pifer of the Brookings Institution, but there are no guarantees.

"Two weeks ago, all evidence suggests that Assad felt he could use chemical weapons with impunity," he said.

"A punitive military strike would demonstrate that such action has costs and might -- might -- affect his future calculation."

With Congress pushing Obama to impose explicit restrictions on the operation, including prohibiting any "boots on the ground," the constraints could undermine the intended psychological impact of the missile strikes, according to Eisenstadt.

"Probably the main way Assad will respond will be to use chemical weapons again, but probably on a much lower level, similar to the way he did previously," he said.

"In order to put the administration in the horns of a dilemma."

Obama would then have to consider a second wave of strikes, opening himself up to criticism that he is dragging the United States into a quagmire -- despite promising to avoid a repeat of the Iraq debacle.

In that scenario, if the United States chose not to launch further action, "Assad will be able to claim that he is unbroken, unbowed and defiant," Eisenstadt said.

"And it puts us in a very difficult situation."

.


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