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WAR REPORT
US military aid to rebels unlikely to tip balance in Syria
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) June 15, 2013


Concern over Syria as World Heritage committee meets
Phnom Penh (AFP) June 16, 2013 - Six ancient Syrian sites as well as Australia's Great Barrier Reef could be listed as endangered by UNESCO, which Sunday begins its annual session to decide which global cultural and natural treasures merit World Heritage status.

The main task of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation committee will be to decide whether 31 sites, including Japan's Mount Fuji and the city of Agadez in Niger, are of "outstanding universal value".

Around 1,300 delegates are due to attend the ten day conference in Cambodia, which is officially opened in the capital Phnom Penh late Sunday with a speech by Cambodian premier Hun Sen. The closing ceremony is to be held in the country's own heritage site, the temple complex of Angkor in Siem Reap.

Discussion of new names to add to the already 962-strong World Heritage list is due to begin on Thursday.

"About 15 sites are looking likely to be inscribed now, but you know the committee is independent... so the figure is an estimate," said UNESCO spokesman Roni Amelan at a press conference in Phnom Penh Sunday.

He said the number of nominations had been reduced after Vietnam opted to withdraw its bid to list Cat Tien national park after the application was found not to have met World Heritage criteria in an initial evaluation.

The meeting will also highlight existing sites under threat.

Syria's civil war, which has claimed some 93,000 lives and reduced huge areas to rubble, has posed a grave threat to its World Heritage sites, according to an assessment by UNESCO.

The ancient cities of Aleppo, Damascus and Bosra are among the sites that have been damaged during the fighting and the assessment said "Aleppo in particular has suffered considerable damage".

Amelan said there had been "very deep concern" about the situation in the country, but said it was not clear what action the committee would decide to take.

Australia's Great Barrier Reef is also under consideration for endangered status, with UNESCO noting studies showing "significant loss of coral cover over the past 27 years resulting mainly from storm damage, climate change effects and crown of thorns starfish and concluding that reducing crown of thorn starfish outbreaks are a key factor in restoring the loss".

But despite concerns over water quality and development plans in the area, the preliminary report recommended a stay of execution for another year while improvements are made.

The best-known of the potential new additions to the coveted heritage list include Mount Fuji, Japan's highest peak at 3,776 metres (12,400 feet) and a national emblem, and Mount Etna, on the east coast of Sicily -- the tallest active volcano in Europe.

Others include the Namib desert flanking southern Africa's Atlantic coast, the magnificent villas and gardens of the Medici in Italy's Tuscany region, the wooden Orthodox churches in the Carpathian mountains of Poland and Ukraine, and the Canadian fishing village of Red Bay, where Spanish Basque whalers operated in the 16th century.

Agadez, a cultural reference point for the nomadic Tuaregs of north-western Africa, was founded before the 14th century and is renowned for several magnificent structures including the Grand Mosque, the Sultan's Palace and its camel and silver market.

Some 27 months into the conflict raging in Syria and with over 90,000 dead, the United States has vowed for the first time to send military aid to the rebels battling to oust President Bashar al-Assad.

But with the White House staying tight-lipped over what kind of weapons it might provide and lacking any public explanation of its strategy, analysts fear such support may be too little to turn the tide of the war.

Proof that Assad has crossed a "red line" by using chemical weapons and the growing involvement of Hezbollah and Iran, finally forced President Barack Obama's hand despite his grave concerns about a deeper US involvement.

And while Obama plans to have in-depth discussions with allies at a G8 summit next week in Northern Ireland, US officials say they cannot divulge what military support will now go directly to the rebels' Supreme Military Council.

One thing is clear though, there will be no American boots on the ground.

"The administration has been dragged very reluctantly into a position of wanting to do more. Now, what do they want to do? They have not been clear," said Hussein Ibish, senior fellow with the American Task Force on Palestine.

"But they are going to be providing more arms and encouraging their allies, especially in the Gulf, to provide arms to the less extreme rebels forces."

Ibish told AFP the administration may try "shipping weapons directly and making sure that over time they don't fall into the wrong hands."

The US options for military assistance range from basic bullets and guns to more advanced anti-aircraft weaponry, or even more drastic intervention such as imposing a no-fly zone or carrying out air strikes against the regime.

Deputy national security advisor Ben Rhodes on Friday all but ruled out a no-fly zone saying it would be "more difficult and dangerous and costly in Syria" than the NATO-led one imposed on Libya.

So for now, the most likely support will come in the form of AK-47 assault rifles and ammunition, said David Hartwell, an analyst at IHS Jane's consulting.

"Graduating up from that, perhaps rocket-propelled grenades and, at the most extreme end, initially some anti-tank weapons, unguided potentially," he said.

Hartwell ruled out for the time being the supply of any guided weapons amid Washington's fears of "proliferation to undesirables -- Islamist extremists."

Israel is particularly worried about advanced shoulder-launched anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons falling into the hands of Al-Qaeda-linked militants or Lebanon's Shiite Hezbollah militia, he and other analysts said.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Obama has ordered the CIA to coordinate secretly and closely with Gulf allies already sending arms to the rebels.

Weapons would include small arms and ammunition, including anti-tank weapons but not anti-aircraft weapons, The New York Times reported, citing unnamed American officials.

But some analysts feared such weapons would not be enough against Assad's forces, who have been helped to victory in Qusayr, for example, by thousands of well-trained and armed Hezbollah militants.

"Trying to remain half pregnant is not a strategy," said Anthony Cordesman, an expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"There is no case for not quietly taking immediate action to provide far more mortars, light artillery, anti-aircraft guns, anti-tank weapons, and all the ammunition it takes," he argued in a written commentary.

Syrian activist Ammar Abdulhamid, director of the grassroots Tharwa Foundation, warned time was running out with Assad's forces now training their sights on Aleppo, the country's second largest city.

"When White House officials speak about needing a few more weeks before arms begin to be delivered, they seem to be completely cut off from current realities of the conflict," he told AFP.

"Iran, Hezbollah, Russia and Assad are busy creating new realities on the ground that will be hard to change in the future without tremendous human and material cost."

Others argued that even providing heavy weapons would be unlikely to change the balance of power with Assad newly emboldened by his victories.

"A much more concerted effort is required for the Syrian rebels to regain momentum," said Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center, arguing for surgical airstrikes and a no-fly zone.

"What is needed, at a bare minimum, is a robust program of training and equipping the opposition, coupled with significant support in the areas of strategic planning, intelligence, and logistics," said Michael Doran, senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy.

In the meantime, Washington is keeping F-16 fighter jets and Patriot anti-missile systems in Jordan after joint military exercises this month.

The administration also plans to keep a unit of about 2,400 US Marines on amphibious ships off the coast.

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