The United States faces diminishing clout in Afghanistan as its troops pull out, but Afghan leaders will still turn to Washington as the most influential player over the next decade, analysts said.

Their contention is based on the premise that US-backed Afghan security forces will keep the Taliban at bay and that President Hamid Karzai and his successors will be able to stay in power.

For analyst Michael O'Hanlon, the United States will be able to retain "quite a bit" of influence in Kabul after 2014, when the bulk of US troops and their NATO allies are supposed to have withdrawn from Afghanistan.

Underscoring the point, he said, is Afghan frustration with Pakistan, a US ally which US and Afghan officials accuse of playing a double game by supporting Taliban attacks against their troops.

"They're frustrated with the way the war is going and will sometimes blame us, but the bottom line is that at the end of the day, the United States and NATO are their best friends," O'Hanlon told AFP.

"It's not clear who else is really going to be there," the Brookings Institution analyst argued.

"Sure, they take a million dollars in cash from the Iranians, or they talk about how they want to ally with India, but India is a long way away," he added.

"And Iran is really more influential in the Western part of the country, which is not the core of the country," O'Hanlon said.

"They somehow thought that they could do a deal with the Taliban and that we were the main ones getting in the way, but obviously the events of the last few weeks dampen those kinds of expectations," he added.

Karzai is reviewing his strategy for peace with the Taliban following the murder last month of his top envoy, chairman Burhanuddin Rabbani, his spokesman said Sunday, as Afghan officials said the killer was Pakistani.

After the United States withdraws its combat forces in three years, it will still retain perhaps between 10,000 and 15,000 troops in the country, predicted Leslie Gelb, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations.

They will be used to train Afghan forces or provide them with logistics and intelligence, he said.

"The more we draw down, the less influence we'll have, but the Afghans have no place to turn but to us. So while our influence will be less than it is today, it will still be far more than any other country," Gelb told AFP.

However, he said the real issue is not how much influence Washington has in the country but what the Afghans do to "create a legitimate and effective government to fight the Taliban," something he says they have failed to do.

Ashley Tellis, a south Asia analyst for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the pullout will prompt a "very substantial shift" in US strategy from one of counter-insurgency to that of counter-terrorism.

With US troops no longer directly fighting Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan, the CIA will continue to hunt down Al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders, much as it has done with its drone strikes on militant rear bases in neighboring Pakistan.

"I think CIA and counter-terrorism will be constant," Tellis said. "And the power that the agency (CIA) will have will be substantial because they are well resourced and are well organized."

He also does not expect President Barack Obama's administration to increase further the 1,200 civilian experts it has deployed in Afghanistan because the environment will still not be safe enough for more.

They will continue to "do a lot of mentoring of national and subnational institutions," he added.

"And where there is relative order, they will work with local tribal groups, they will work with local governments to try and help them put together a semblance of civil administration."

Tellis also forecast "a substantial diminution in US financial commitments to Afghanistan and an effort to seek alternatives," either through increased revenues from Afghan mineral resources or greater international involvement.

But he said the Afghans will continue to rely more on the United States than any rival.

"I think the United States will be the most important outside player, followed of course immediately by Pakistan and that of course will bring challenges all its own," he told AFP.