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POLITICAL ECONOMY
World Bank warns developing countries over Europe
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) June 12, 2012


The World Bank on Tuesday warned developing countries to boost their defenses against Europe's debt crisis, predicting years of volatility in a flailing global economy.

In its semiannual report on worldwide economic conditions, the World Bank forecast the global economy would have "weak growth" of 2.5 percent in 2012, while developing countries' pace would slow to 5.3 percent, the most sluggish rate in the past 10 years.

High-income countries should see a feeble 1.4 percent growth rate this year, burdened with a 0.3 percent contraction in the 17-nation eurozone as the bloc grapples with financial turmoil.

"For all high-income countries, not just Europe, it will take many years to undo the damage that was done in the global financial crisis in 2008 or, more accurately, to address the problems that were created in the boom period before the crisis," said Hans Timmer, head of Development Prospects at the Washington-based bank.

Developing countries have fewer means to weather shocks to their economies than they had in 2007, before the global financial crisis accelerated, the development lender said.

"Another serious financial crisis is a possibility," Timmer said at a news briefing on the latest Global Economic Prospects report.

If high-income countries continue to grow even slowly, "it is still possible for developing countries to turn out very solid growth rates," he said. "In case of a serious financial crisis, no developing country will be spared."

The United States, the world's largest economy, should have slightly slower growth of 2.1 percent, while Japan, recovering from the 2011 earthquake-tsunami disaster, should expand 2.4 percent, a sharp half point higher than believed six months ago.

China was projected to slow to 8.2 percent from the 8.4 percent pace seen in January.

The banks said that renewed uncertainty in the eurozone had led to a sharp deterioration in financial conditions in May.

That wiped out about seven percent of the value in stock markets in advanced and developing countries, hit commodity prices hard, and strengthened the dollar as investors sought a safe haven.

Andrew Burns, lead author of the report, said global capital flows fell 44 percent from April to May.

Even so, conditions in most developing countries have not deteriorated as much as they did in the 2011 fourth quarter, the 188-nation anti-poverty lender said.

Timmer said 60 percent of developing countries are now "close to overheating" after expanding spending and investment that insulated them from the European and US downturns.

He urged developing countries to adjust their economic policies now to "move away from firefighting to strengthening your underlying growth potential."

The report highlighted the need for developing countries to start re-investing in human and physical capital, such as infrastructure, to ensure sustainable growth.

The inexpensive and abundant capital that had driven the high growth rates of the past decade may no longer be available, the economists cautioned.

Burns stressed that developing countries should reduce their vulnerabilities where possible by lowering short-term debt levels and cutting budget deficits.

"Doing so will provide them with more leeway to loosen policy, should global conditions take a sharp turn for the worse," Burns said.

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IMF ties environment to restoring European growth
Washington (AFP) June 12, 2012 - IMF chief Christine Lagarde tied saving the environment to restoring growth in Europe, saying Tuesday that green development cannot get going while advanced countries are stuck in crisis.

Speaking ahead of the June 20-22 UN Conference on Sustainable Development, the Rio+20 Summit, Lagarde said that environmentally friendly growth cannot be disconnected from restoring fiscal health and growth in the advanced countries.

"Today, I believe that we are facing a triple crisis -- an economic crisis, an environmental crisis, and, increasing, a social crisis," she said in an address at the Center for Global Development in Washington.

"The global economy is still rocked by turmoil, with uncertain prospects for growth and jobs."

"We must start with the basics -- from a platform of restored economic stability and growth. From that base, we can achieve green growth and inclusive growth -- the building blocks of our sustainable and equitable economic future."

Lagarde, whose main burden in the past year has been wrestling with the eurozone's financial crisis -- and the tensions between stabilizing weak euro area countries and restoring growth -- admitted the International Monetary Fund is not an environmental organization.

But, she added, "We cannot ignore the extensive human suffering and the misallocation of resources that leads us down the wrong path."

More deterioration of advanced economies could damage currently fit developing countries, setting back their attempts at sustainable growth.

To foster sustainable, green economies, she said, "First and foremost, we need to get growth going again."

"This must start with the advanced economies, especially in Europe. Policymakers need to take decisive steps to break free of the crisis."

The IMF managing director conceded that economic growth "can potentially harm the environment and that environmental degradation can in turn hurt economic performance. We need to get the green economy right."

A key then is fostering policies that are "good for stability and good for growth," including properly pricing the costs of pollution and other destructive activities.

Getting such prices right is "the best and most comprehensive route to reducing environmental damage."

She also stressed "inclusive growth" that creates jobs and helps reduce inequality.

"Options here include reducing tax evasion and avoidance," she said, repeating an issue she has made repeatedly about Greece as it struggles to implement its 130 billion euro ($160 billion) EU-IMF bailout.

On Monday she told CNN television: "I think that tax compliance is a necessary tool to restore any country's situation -- Greece, like others."



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College Park, Md. (UPI) Jun 12, 2012
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